3 years ago
Bottleneck Amidst Recovery (Global Equity Market)
Reporting seasons sent global indexes to higher levels in October. The majority of earnings show the re-opening effects therefore companies can maintain a descent margin like in the first half of 2021 despite increasing input costs. Higher costs happened due to bottleneck supply chain in producer countries like China where production mostly depends on.
US economy in the 3Q21 was recorded at 2% yoy, far below the consensus at 2.7% yoy and 2Q21 at 6.3% yoy. US economic growth slowed considerably in the third quarter due to supply-chain disruptions, a resurgence of Covid-19 and slower consumer spending. The same happened to the 3Q21 economic growth of the second-largest economy in the world, China, which slumped to only 4.9% yoy from 7.9% yoy in 2Q21. The main driver of the slow pace was due to property slowdown and energy shortages highlighted rising pressure on policymakers.
Meanwhile, the US senate has extended the debt ceiling until December, providing short-term relief to investors who had fretted about a government default in October. The Fed will announce the tapering in November and remind that the rate hike will need more time to happen. We think global equity can perform as the reopening economy takes place and companies’ margins can expand further. We are suggesting investors invest more in Mandiri Global Sharia Equity Dollar (MGSED) due to the global diversified strategy into different regions and themes. MGSED just earned the Best Sharia USD Fund 2021 Award for a 1 and 3 years period from Infovesta. We are proud of it and hope we will continue the good performance for our investors.
Gaining Momentum (Domestic Equity Market)
October is the month of the Indonesian equity market. Almost all blue-chip stocks have performed greatly in October driving the JCI index to reach a new high. Driven by the commodity due to the shortage of coal globally, Indonesia is perceived as a country that has the mean to ease the problem. At the same time, Indonesia has successfully overcome the pandemic in the last few months where it has not been priced by global investors. The first-shot vaccination rate has exceeded 50% and the second-shot rate has reached above 32%.
Additionally, the banks as one of the main economic growth drivers have shown confidence in loan channelling. The loan growth rose gradually especially from consumer loans through the property sector. The government has loosened the policy on activity restriction where many cities have recorded low daily cases and bed occupancy ratios. Looking at the current condition, Indonesia is ready to reopen its economy wider. Although loosening the policy, the government is aware of the possibility of surging cases by year-end when a long holiday has been awaited by many people. The current policy in tackling the Covid case is very efficient and therefore we think the government can overcome the hurdle.
We also see many sectors will start to operate normally and that will give a positive impact on the domestic equity market. Companies are more confident in raising their selling price and can normalize their profit margins which have been under pressure for quite some time. We see the optimistic condition will remain the same until early next year. Therefore, we suggest investors collect more equity into their portfolio, especially when there is a measured correction.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info lebih lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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