3 years ago
Wait and See (Global Equity Market)
In September, global markets tend to wait and see the development of the US economy and China policy. US inflation has declined first time in 2021, where in Aug21 inflation inched lower to 5.3% from 5.4% in June and July. US unemployment booked a record low this year with 5.2% in Aug21, but non – farm payroll is still not as strong as expected. The US economic stimulus plan that distributed since March has come to the end in September. Meanwhile, US Congress is still discussing passing the infrastructure bill and USD 3.5 trillion budget package. The bill will support the US economy in 2022, and eventually the global economy.
On the other side, the world’s most indebted real estate developer in China is on the verge of default. Its troubles are reverberating across China’s property sector and the world, revealing a rationale why long-term interest rates would not rise too far where the global economy is heavily indebted. However, over the next few years, analysts predict China slowed much less rapidly than one would expect given the debt levels, thanks to the rise of its tech sector. The new economy, led by digital technology companies in the private sector, grew explosively. The tech sector now accounts for a staggering 40% of the Chinese economy, up from 20% in 2016.
For the time being, we have reduced our Chinese equity portion and allocated it to other regions where policy is more conducive. We will add back the China portion once the condition is more favorable.
Steady Basic to Perform (Domestic Equity Market)
Many domestic data have been released showing encouraging conditions where Indonesia has strong basic to rebound. We can understand that due to PPKM, PMI manufacturing and Consumer Confidence Index were on the low side. Looking at the brighter side, the trade balance in Aug21 booked a record high since 2006 at USD 4.7 billion, with export value jumped 64% YoY. The forex reserves also noted record high at least for last five years USD 144 billion. Car sales still grew at 123% YoY and toll traffic volume narrow to the pre-pandemic level. Mandiri Spending Index adds more domestic catalyst even further where value spending index has reached back pre-pandemic level while frequency spending index grows strong.
Fiscal revenue continued to improve reaching 14% YoY in 8M21 (vs. FY21 target at 7% growth) from 9% YoY in 1H21 supported by domestic and external economies. On the other hand, the fiscal expenditure slowed to 1.5% YoY in 8M21 from 9.4% YoY in 1H21, due to a decline in regional transfer. Additionally, PEN fund (dana Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional) only reached 53% as of 17 Sep21 out of Rp 744.75 trillion. Ministry of Finance forecasts that the 3Q21 GDP growth still can reach between 4% – 5% despite PPKM imposed in almost all cities in Indonesia. By end of September, Indonesia has made further progress in pandemic indicators such as vaccination rate first shot reached 42% (second shot 23%), BOR lowered to 9%, and daily positive patient booked only roughly 2000 cases/day.
Going forward, the government still has plenty of resources to foster the growth in 4Q21 through fiscal expenditure and loosen the PPKM policy. Companies have started to raise the selling price where we think can improve profit margins. Hence, equity valuation will look attractive and investors have plenty of reasons to own more Indonesian stocks.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| ASEAN5 | Reksa Dana ASEAN5 berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Domestik dan Luar Negeri. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MICB | Reksa Dana MICB berinvestasi pada saham domestik Mayoritas mengikuti LQ45 Denominasi Rupiah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info lebih lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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