Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Still on correction trend, US stocks continued declining (S&P -2.29% WoW and Nasdaq -2.43% WoW). If previous week was caused by the tariff and rising unemployment, this time is about recession fear. Donald Trump acknowledged that the economy might softer due to his policy in the short run for a stronger economy in the longer period.
• Domestic Indices: IHSG declined 1.82% WoW and LQ45 fell 3.2% WoW as fiscal deficit might expand to 2.7% from previous 2.5% to GDP.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data and News:
  • US JOLTS Job Jan25 7.7mn vs Dec24 7.5mn
  • China inflation Feb25 grew negative 0.7% yoy.
  • Indonesia domestic fiscal budget deficit hits 0.13% to GDP, driven by slower tax collection -30% yoy due to coretax implementation, and spending declined by -7% yoy
• Geopolitics Events:
  • Trump implemented tariffs of 25% for all imported steel and aluminum products. Canada and the EU placed retaliatory tariffs in response
  • Russia said it was carefully considering a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine backed by The US
  • Former central banker Mark Carney won Canada’s election by a landslide, winning 83% of the votes.
  • Rodrigo Duterte, former president of the Philippines, was extradited to the Netherlands to face charges over alleged crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court.
• Sector/Corporate Highlights:
  • ESDM proposed a royalty hike for minerals rallied, nickel (ore and downstream), copper, silver, gold, bauxite. ESDM also reduced the royalty for IUPK licensed coal miner.
  • GOTO turned adjusted-EBITDA positive in 4Q24 with IDR 327bn vs IDR 3.7tn loss in 2023. Company guided aggressive EBITDA of IDR 1.4-1.6tn in 2025, taking driver THR into account.
  • 4W wholesale achieved 72.3k units (+2% yoy), a recovery from soft January sales. 2M25 sales is at 134k unit vs 900k target (15%). 2W wholesale stable with 1.1m unit in 2M25 (-1.1% yoy; in line with guidance).
  • BCA officially appointed Hendra Lembong as CEO, replacing Jahja Setiaatmadja, appointed President Commissioner.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: Still high at 21.77 (vs 23.37 previous week) still on the tariff concern.
• Bond Market: UST yield stable at 4,3%, and IndoGb yield stable at 6.9% supported by slight declining of SRBI yield 6.3%-6.4%.
• DXY: Stable at 103 (prev: 103) on the fear of recession in coming months.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • Indonesia trade balance Feb25
  • BOJ,BOE interest rate decision
  • BI interest rate decision
  • US FOMC minutes

 

Summary & recommendation:

The combination of global and domestic development has pulled back stocks movement. We think this moment is to collect domestic stocks as the dividend period in approaching. Additionally, as the US economy might slow down, EM market stocks might be the next destination. While Europe and China’s stocks rallied, other EM equity markets might catch up.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MMUSD, RD MIPU, RD MGSED, RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG.

Tactical asset allocation: in March equity 42.5%, fixed income 42.5% and money market 15%.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-11,0%	-8,0%
LQ45	-16,0%	-12,1%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-15,0%	-12,7%
MICB A	-14,5%	-11,9%
ASEAN5	-15,5%	-13,2%
MGSED	-7,7%	-5,5%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-13,9%	-10,1%
ETF
XMLF	-15,7%	-12,1%
BALANCED
MISB	-2,49%	-1,76%
MIA	-8,93%	-7,55%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU	+2,26%	+2,07%
MIDO2	+1,73%	+1,63%
IDAMAN	-0,58%	+1,59%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,13%	+0,92%
MMUSD	+0,79%	+0,62%

*The data above is as of March 14th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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