Market Performance:

• Major Indices: continued rally where S&P jumped further 2.9%% WoW and Nasdaq also higher by 3.4% WoW.
• Domestic Indices: JCI booked 2.05% WoW and LQ45 up 1.7% WoW. Rupiah has strengthened to Rp16.400/USD.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

1.US 1Q25 GDP: -0.3% annualized (Prev: 2.4%, cons: -0.2%).

2.US Mar25 PCE YoY 2.3% (Prev: 2.5%, cons: 2.2%).

3.US Apr25 Non Farm Payroll: 177k (prev: 185k, cons: 138k), while US Apr25 Unemployment: 4.2% (prev: 4.2%, cons: 4.2%).

4.China Caixin PMI booked 50.4 in Apr25 (prev: 51.2); Politburo pledged support but offered no major new stimulus.

5.Indonesia Apr25 CPI: 1.95% YoY (prev: 1.03%, cons: 1.5%) and PMI Manufacturing fell sharply to 46.7 in Apr25 (prev: 52.4).

 

• Geopolitical Events:

1.Donald Trump gave a little relief to the Auto Industry by lifting tariffs on imports of vehicles and auto parts.

2.Following the victory of his Liberal Party in Canadian Election, Mark Carney, the prime minister, claimed a fresh mandate to negotiate with America over trade and security

3.America and Ukraine signed a long-awaited agreement that gives America access to   critial minerals, easing a source of tension between the two countries.

4.Electricity was gradually restored to Spain and Portugal after a widespread blackout that affected both countries.

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:

1.US big tech posted strong 1Q results, with in line achievement and some companies like META still guiding higher investment on data centers.

2.Indonesia 1Q earnings started in the last week of April with most companies printing in line earnings with consensus expectations. Stand outs include ANTM (boosted by its nickel and gold segment),  GOTO (Adj EBITDA  on track to meet guidance despite THR), and MIDI (Strong SSSG 12.4% boosted growth during Lebaran). Telco booked inline results despite declining top line number.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: keep declining to 22 from previous week 25.
• Bond Market: UST yield continued stable at 4.3%, while IndoGb yield unchaged at 6.9%.
• DXY: slightly ticked up to 100 from previous week 99.6. Rupiah has strengthened to Rp 16,430/USD from Rp 16,820/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

1.Indonesia GDP (5 May 2025)

2.Fed Meeting (7 May 2025)

3.Country-by-country trade deals with the US until the end of the 90 day tariff pause.

4.SRBI jumbo maturity

 

• Corporate events:
  • Companies’ dividends

 

Summary & recommendation:

April became a positive month despite a shock in the beginning of the month. We think the domestic market gained momentum together with the global market. Despite the trading negotiation still ongoing, the US is open to discussing and adjusting, as seen in the relief in US Auto Sector. That can be replicated in other sectors and lower the fear of high inflation.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MGSED, RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG, RD IDAMAN, dan RD MMUSD.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-4,1%	-3,7%
LQ45	-7,3%	-7,7%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-5,3%	-7,0%
MICB A	-4,6%	-5,9%
ASEAN5	-6,7%	-8,6%
MGSED	-8,3%	-6,9%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-4,2%	-3,6%
ETF
XMLF	-5,0%	-5,4%
BALANCED
MISB	+0,87%	+0,72%
MIA	-2,56%	-3,70%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,24%	+3,00%
MIDO2	+2,20%	+2,43%
IDAMAN	+1,00%	+1,50%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,11%	+1,50%
MMUSD	+0,77%	+1,03%

*The data above is as of May 2nd, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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