Global Monetary Change
Entering 2022 with the condition of global monetary normalization can be quite challenging. We saw global market has been discussing what can happen when central banks change their supportive policy during pandemic more than expected to tame rising inflation. The Fed has mentioned they are ready to raise the rate as soon as tapering ends in March, where previously they still saw happened in second semester 2022. Additionally, the Fed also plans to reduce the balance sheet as soon as the rate hike starts. This policy change has put pressure on the stock and bond market globally. The US Treasury 10-year yield increased from 1.55% to 1.85%, INDOGB 10-year yield has been quite stable throughout the month of January at a range of 6.3% – 6.4%. We are in the opinion that the bond yield spread of INDOGB & UST 10-year will hover at the range of 450 – 550 bps.
Despite the global monetary change, we are still in favour to recommend INDOGB because the issuance of government bonds decline while global and domestic liquidity is expected to keep elevated. At the same time, the domestic economy is improving creating more consumption and investment. With the new tax law, government income is expected to be higher. Although the pandemic is still lingering, the overall condition is much better with the current higher vaccination rate. Therefore, the government can be more efficient on the state budget. We don’t see there will outflow by foreign investors on INDOGB because the percentage of foreign ownership in INDOGB left only 19% where a large portion of them are long term bondholders. We shorten the current fund duration to a more neutral position until the situation is much clear with monetary policy. We expect the second-semester situation will be calmer and the fixed income asset class can perform better.
Rekomendasi Produk
PRODUK | |
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MIDU | Reksa Dana MIDU berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen Jangka Menengah dan dikategorikan berisiko Rendah – Menengah. Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut. |
Info lebih lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
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