2 years ago
Voting Machine in Short Run (Global Equity Market)
April was challenging for the global market as inflation is heating up. However, many economists have predicted that the peak of inflation is near. Although the Fed is obviously behind the curve, we think the US central bank will aggressively hike the rate to cool down the inflation and job market. Additionally, in the March FOMC minutes, it is stated that Fed officials reached a consensus that they would begin reducing the central bank balance sheet by USD 95 billion a month, likely beginning in May. With inflation approaching the peak level and the Fed’s hawkish stance, the question is whether the US economy will face a sharp downturn or so-called a hard landing. Additionally, many big companies show a solid increase in revenue but only a soft increase in net profit resulting in lower profit margin due to higher input costs and higher wages that take a bite into the profitability. Therefore, the global markets are adjusting to the current condition with correction.
Going forward we see low expectations in the market as a decent entry point for investors that see the potential for the comeback. In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. Having said that we add more big-cap stocks to the portfolio to balance the index movement. We also add more healthcare stocks because we see more reopening business in the economy as Covid cases are fading around the world. As global investors are waiting for the Fed’s decision, there are too many speculations. After all, we rather recommend clients to stay calm as all challenging news has been released in the market.
Homecoming Rally (Domestic Equity Market)
JCI posted a solid rally in April 2022 supported by big cap-stocks rallies that were reflected in the strong rally of the LQ 45 index. The rally is supported by the macro-economic conditions and fundamental performance. We are aware that Indonesia’s economy is on the expanding stage but imminent with global challenges. The global inflation pushed by higher commodity prices obviously benefits Indonesia’s economy in the short run. As energy prices remain elevated, there is a possibility that the Indonesian government will adjust the domestic energy prices. Going forward, the domestic inflation rate should be substantially higher because of several reasons: 1. Recovering economic activities will increase money velocity; 2. The price increase pass-through from producers to consumers, given that producers now face rising input prices; 3. The impact of the VAT increase; and 4. Increasing administered prices (fuel, electricity, and LPG). We see that inflation is most likely to reach beyond Bank Indonesia’s upper range of 4%, hence BI is expected to raise the interest rates up to 75 bps in the second half of this year to maintain the attractiveness of investing in Indonesia’s assets. With the increasing vaccination rate and subsiding Covid-19 cases, the government has allowed the annual homecoming tradition of Eid festivities to resume after a two-year delay due to the pandemic. We are hopeful that the Eid holiday can bring positive effects to the economy, especially for the reopening of many sectors that have been muted for quite a long time. Multiplier effects of the reopening can create more job opportunities for many people. Hence, people can have a higher purchasing power to consume. We recommend investors should continuously invest in equity to balance the higher inflation.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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