Stay Hawkish (Global Equity Market)

 

The global equity index rally in the summer is over and markets turned their focus on the Fed again. The global market is trying to gauge what the Fed will do in its next meeting in September 2022. The Fed used the chance at the Jackson Hole economic symposium to deliver their hawkish message on the US central bank’s determination to tame surging inflation. The Fed chair said successfully reducing inflation would probably result in lower economic growth for “a sustained period” and to do that, interest rates would need to stay at a level that restrains growth for some time. Fed officials are debating whether a third of the same magnitude (75 bps) will be necessary at its meeting in September, or if they should opt for a half-point rise instead. Jerome Powell said at some point it would be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rates but dismissed recent data showing a slight easing of inflation as insufficient. Most officials say they can bring inflation under control without causing a painful recession. That runs counter to the consensus view among economists, who predict at least a mild recession sometime in the next year. Investors expect the Fed is willing to take more short-term pain to ensure the longer-term gain of price stability and markets are unlikely to see a dovish pivot soon.

We see the recent rally in RD MGSED (RD Mandiri Global Sharia Equity Dollar) as the prove that the portfolio works well in the global dynamics. Despite the Fed’s policy tends to stay hawkish for the longer term and global inflation still high, we have seen the worst correction in the first semester of 2022 and the market narrative can change soon as we approach the last quarter of 2022 which on average can perform well. We suggest investors add more RD MGSED to prepare for the next rally.

 

Fuel Up the Rally (Domestic Equity Market)

 

The global markets have experienced corrections since mid of August 2022 as investors tried to gauge the Fed’s policy. The story is different to the Indonesian equity indexes that can perform higher in August 2022. There are several reasons we think the domestic market reacted positively despite the global market markets facing challenges. Firstly, fundamental performances have shown that Indonesian corporations, especially bank and commodity sectors, are improving as the market foresees. Therefore, investors are still reaping target prices that haven’t been achieved with relative undemanding valuations. Second, the 2023 national budget draft proposed by the government shows a discipline spending policy at the same time still promoting growth is well accepted by the market. The last backup of the market was the dynamic of the Rupiah exchange rate which was still resilient despite a stronger US Dollar. Rupiah can be stable due to still strong trade balance and inflow of investment to jump-start the economy. In addition to that, we see Bank Indonesia has finally started to raise the benchmark rate as a pre-emptive move to mitigate potential higher inflation due to fuel price adjustment.

We think the domestic equities haven’t run off the fuel because approaching the last quarter of 2022 investors can tend to be more bullish. We see normalization in many sectors which means more sectors will slowly catch up with the lagging as the domestic economy makes more room to expand. We might see correction as investors realize gain or risk averse for a while. However, we see that can create an opportunity for investors to add equity funds gradually in preparation for higher performance in the coming months.

 

Rekomendasi Produk

 

PRODUK
MGSED	Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut.
MITRA	Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut.
MICB	Reksa Dana Mandiri Investa Cerdas Bangsa berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang termasuk dalam indeks LQ45. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut.
MANFIGA	Reksa Dana Indeks MANFIGA berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang terdapat di dalam Indeks FTSE Indonesia ESG. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut.

 

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Info Lebih Lanjut

Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id

 

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DISCLAIMER

Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.

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