3 years ago
Uncertain Kick Off (Global Equity Market)
Starting 2022, global equity indexes have been trying to adjust to new monetary policies, especially by the Fed. Global monetary policies have changed due to persistently high inflation that happened in many places. Although higher Covid cases were elevated, the job markets are quite strong. That creates strong demand for goods and drives output. Hence, inflation is likely to remain high but the peak could have been reached possibly in the first quarter of 2022. We believe central banks are responding to the situation with their policy change, but trying to maintain economic expansion as long as possible. The Fed has informed the public through their minutes on their plan to raise the benchmark rate and their balance sheet reduction. The Fed rate hike is needed to calm the improving economy. However, global markets are still unclear on the balance sheet reduction. Hence, the global stocks experience a significant correction.
Historically, as the market is clearer on the policy and the profitability of companies keeps improving along with the stronger economy, we see stocks will continue increasing. Strong volatility is happening along January, growth stocks especially technology stocks experienced a correction. We think the current situation should be used by investors to add more global assets to yield higher return for a longer investment horizon. We adjust our portfolio to add more other sectors like consumer discretionary, healthcare and industrials in order to get the advantage of broader economic activities. Although shrinking, the majority of the portfolio will be still in the information technology sector. The US and other DM are still making the largest portion so that when the global markets rebound the portfolio can benefit through maintaining a presence in those markets.
A Wavy Ride (Domestic Equity Market)
Indonesian stocks have started the year 2022 with new optimism despite a wavy ride. The Indonesian government has managed well the year-end long holiday with a low level of daily positive Covid cases. At the beginning of the year, the central government pushes their national agenda in their second terms such as value-added mining export policy and new capital city project. These agendas can become the new source of value creation in the Indonesian economy. By having more value-added export goods, Indonesia will play a bigger role around the globe and more investment will flow into the domestic economy. The foreign direct investment in the fourth quarter of 2021 has shown investment grew like pre-pandemic. We think the inflow trend on direct investment will still continue in 2022. On the new capital city project, it is not an easy project for the government to start with amidst current economic recovery and shrinking budget deficit effort. However, this is a long term project that can spread prosperity nationwide outside Java, especially outside Jakarta.
Meanwhile, we understand the global market are still observing global monetary change, especially by the Fed. We think domestic equity can outperform global equity because Indonesia has made a lot of progress during the pandemic and is about to jump higher as other countries have normalized. We ask investors to see a broader view in looking domestic economy that is improving step by step. Some sectors have made significant improvements while some sectors still need time to catch up. Combining top-down and bottom-up approaches would benefit current stocks selection. We recommend owning more equity investment in order to take advantage of the current uptrend.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info lebih lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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