1 years ago
Optimistic Start (Global Equity Market)
Global stocks kicked off in the year 2023 with a very solid move. We see the major indexes bounced back strong as the investor sees the Fed shall reach its peak benchmark rate at around 5.00% where the latest hike has brought the rate to set at 4.50%. However, we see the economic headwind might still be strong where the employment condition in the US is still strong as the unemployment rate still declined and non-farm payroll was much higher than expected in January 2023. Thus, the embedded inflation in many sectors, especially services, might threaten growth.
On the other side, the IMF raised the global growth forecast as China reopens and gas prices fall. The IMF stated 2023 could well represent a turning point, with economic conditions improving in subsequent years. Additionally, the IMF also stated that a global recession is likely not to happen. We think it can result positively to many countries including Indonesia through more demand and output of goods and services.
With those two thoughts, we think global equity assets look interesting and have the potential to rally further despite volatility. These days, good news becomes bad news. But overall, investors that have longer investment horizons might benefit from the current situation.
Confidence (Domestic Equity Market)
Optimism is back in the Indonesian stock market. Early in January 2023, JCI was still under pressure when global fund flow went to China as the Chinese government scrapped the zero-Covid policy at the end of 2022 and provides more ease to the general economy. Later in the month, JCI recovered and gained back confidence because of the EM growth story that can improve as the Fed is expected to reach its benchmark rate peak. Hence, the exchange rates in EM are expected to appreciate against USD, including Rupiah. By having a stronger and stable exchange rate, global investors are more confident in growth sustainability.
In other positive news, the IMF raised the global growth forecast as China reopens and gas prices fall. The IMF stated 2023 could well represent a turning point, with economic conditions improving in subsequent years. Additionally, the IMF also stated that a global recession is likely not to happen. We think it can result positively in many countries including Indonesia through more demand and output of goods and services.
Looking at the condition, we see investors might use the current rare condition in the equity market where the fundamental is intact and the valuation is undemanding. Additionally, the optimism and economic improvement of the global market are progressing. The only headwind in the stock market is volatility where often good news in the economy could be interpreted as bad indicators because additional policies might likely be imposed in order to avoid overheating, and vice versa. In general, domestic stocks are likely trending up in the long run.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MICB | Reksa Dana Mandiri Investa Cerdas Bangsa berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang termasuk dalam indeks LQ45. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MANFIGA | Reksa Dana Indeks MANFIGA berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang terdapat di dalam Indeks FTSE Indonesia ESG. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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