2 years ago
Policy Intact (Global Equity Market)
The global markets have made a comeback at the end of the month, although major issues like inflation and war have not faded. Yet global investors have been surprised at the remarkably modest fallout for the global financial system and the lack of broader reverberation so far. Vix volatility index, a proxy for how much fear there is in markets, has slipped below its long term – average, indicating a fall in anxiety. The Fed has finally raised the benchmark rate by 25 bps and stated there will be 6 hikes to go in this year and 3 hikes in 2023. The Fed also separate the announcement of quantitative tightening to the next meeting, including the size of the liquidity withdrawal will be further assessed until the May meeting. The Fed’s decision on rate hike is within the range of the market forecast, hence there is no calibration in the market because the correction in the global equity markets for the last 3 months was due to the adjustment of the 6 to 7-time benchmark rate hikes.
We don’t think we can downplay the magnitude of the strong inflation and the effect of the Russian – Ukraine war, but the efforts of taming those problems are working in progress. Inflation might be still elevated until the second quarter due to strong demand and high commodity prices caused by the war. Current high demands have been driven by strong employment and high wage growth which the evidence that Covid-19 cases have been under-controlled. Meanwhile, the current risk is that higher commodity prices could damage consumer spending and corporate profits, and in turn, the post-pandemic recovery. We believe that there is still considerable pent-up demand and a strong household balance sheet and savings rate, should provide a source of spending.
At this point, we expect central banks to prioritize growth, resulting in a more gradual policy normalization cycle as they acknowledge the downside risks from higher commodity prices. All things considered, we still think monetary policy will remain supportive for risk assets this year. Therefore, RD Mandiri Global Sharia Equity Dollar (RD MGSED) can be one of the choices in the long run where the fund performance has improved recently. Investors can hold and add more the position as the uncertainties are fading and growth stock valuations especially tech stocks valuations are relatively within normal range.
The Rally Has Legs (Domestic Equity Market)
JCI continued the strong performance in March 2022. The rally this month was backed by the global market rally although inflation and war are still concerning the markets. The major forward step in March 2022 is the rate hike announcement by the Fed that has been awaited by many people. The Fed has finally raised the benchmark rate by 25 bps and stated there will be 6 hikes to go in this year and 3 hikes in 2023. The Fed also separate the announcement of quantitative tightening to the next meeting, including the size of the liquidity withdrawal will be further assessed until the May meeting. The Fed’s decision on rate hike is within the range of the market forecast, hence there is no calibration in the market because the correction in the markets for the last 3 months was due to the adjustment of the 6 to 7-time US benchmark rate hikes.
Indonesia has got a positive tailwind from the global high commodity prices that drive global inflation. Historically, every time the inflation is high caused by a strong economy and demand for goods, emerging markets like Indonesia always perform well. The commodity sector movement becomes the trigger for the other sectors to move along. JCI reached a level above 7.000 for the first time and the rally is supported by strong fundamental factors. Indonesia is still in the early cycle of recovery and more reopening will boost the economy. We think policymakers are still accommodative for growth and proactive to stimulate sectors that were affected badly by Covid-19. We remain positive on the domestic equity even though high volatility might happen more often influenced by global normalization.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
Written by
Leave a Reply