2 years ago
Crossroad (Global Equity Market)
The global markets faced uncertainty as the Fed signaled they will act all out in order to get inflation under control. The majority of economic data in April 2022 showed a softer tone compared to the peak in March 2022. If the Fed had taken aggressive steps, investors were scared the US economy would go faster into recession. On the other hand, if the Fed had taken a soft approach, inflation could be trouble for many stakeholders. Therefore, we think the Fed will keep increasing the benchmark rate but the policy still depends on the developing economic data. On the other side, some investors are concerned about China which can create another round of supply chain problems as we saw at the end of 2021. The Chinese government is still tight on the Zero Covid policy which has been prolonged for quite some time and resulted in weaker Chinese economic data. If supply chain issues add more pressure to the global inflation we see that would create another uncertainty in the market as global investors have already received much unfavorable news in recent months.
In general, we believe that consumers still have some pent–up saving that they accumulated during the pandemic, which will help cushion them from higher energy prices. Capital spending should be strong as companies take advantage of booming recent profits and still cheap financing to install equipment. Governments may also step in with more measures to help alleviate the squeeze on real incomes. Therefore, looking out into the next phases, we still expect material earnings growth and not dissimilar to the rebound from the global financial crisis. While the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the prospect of higher interest rates may spark occasional bouts of volatility, we continue to believe that the outlook for equities remains positive. Diversifying the portfolio is important, and possessing a global equity fund like RD MGSED (RD Mandiri Global Sharia Equity Dollar) can yield overall in the long run.
Normality is back (Domestic Equity Market)
After a strong rally for the first four months of 2022, JCI was exposed to correction on May 22. Global equity markets in Developed and Emerging Markets have experienced corrections due to burdensome heating inflation followed by monetary tightening policies in many countries. JCI fell sharply in the early half of the month before rebounded strongly afterwards. Compared to other economies, Indonesia is in the progressing phase with growing consumption and elevated net export. This current momentum in the domestic economy needs to be maintained, hence the government plans to provide energy subsidies to avoid excessive inflation that could jeopardize the recovery.
Fortunately, Indonesia can benefit from high commodity prices that support increasing government revenue. Additionally, tax income starts improving as the economy keeps getting better. Besides fiscal, BI’s monetary policy is still the same which is supporting growth and recovery. The combination of fiscal and monetary policy creates conducive conditions for the domestic equity market. We are excited to see Indonesians enjoy long holiday, especially during the Eid holiday as that was the first time endorsed by the government after two years of tight activity controlled policy. We expect consumption gets stronger and companies can improve their fundamental performances. We do think the stocks have fuel to run further, especially when higher input costs can be milder and adjusted with higher selling prices along the way thus the profit margin can improve. Global volatility can happen frequently and influence domestic stocks. Hence investors should look at the bigger view, especially on domestic economic improvement.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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