2 years ago
Soaring Rates (Global Equity Market)
The Fed keeps raising the Fed Fund Rate (FFR) by another 75 bps in September 2022 as the US headline inflation is still sticky. The last hike brought the benchmark rate to a range between 3 – 3.25% whereas at the beginning of the year the rate was close to zero. However, the Fed signalled that this was far from the end of its monetary policy tightening. The market has priced the FFR will rise to a range between 4-5%, the highest since the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis.
Having current high benchmark rate FFR and more hikes to come, it is unquestionable that the US Dollar keeps strengthening compared to other currencies. At the same time, economists also predict the US recession will happen in the first half of the year 2023 and stretch across two or three quarters.
The forceful tightening of monetary policy is not only happening in the US but it is also conducted by many central banks around the globe. Therefore, the valuation of stocks has to calibrate with the hawkish monetary policies causing sell-off in September. The current situation has brought the stocks to the previous bottom in June. We suggest this halfway journey of interest rate hikes can be used to build a global position in investors’ portfolios.
Enduring Tailwind (Domestic Equity Market)
The correction in global equity markets continues due to tightening monetary policies around the globe. The Fed, indeed, raised the Fed Fund Rate by another 75 bps in September 2022 which brought the benchmark rate to a range of 3 – 3.25%. The Fed signalled that the latest hike would not be the last of its monetary policy tightening due to high inflation. The market has priced the FFR will rise to a range between 4-5%, the highest since the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis. Besides the Fed, other central banks mostly raised their benchmark rates forcefully in September 2022, including Bank Indonesia. BI raised the 7D RRR by 50 bps and it is beyond the market’s expectation of only 25 bps. The domestic benchmark rate now increased to 4.25% and we think it will continue rising. We think the monetary policy is tightened to keep the attractiveness of the Rupiah. It is because although the trade balance is currently still a surplus, Indonesia will potentially experience a declining surplus or even deficit as the thriving domestic economy carries on while global economies slow down. Additionally, the subsidized fuel price has just been raised in September, thus higher domestic inflation is inevitable. We think the government is providing support to low-income earners to back up their consumption, which is more right and just.
High-energy cost is still the headwind for the broad economy, at the same time tailwind for the equity market. Like other equity markets, the correction of domestic stocks happened in September after a solid rally in the previous month. However, we think the correction is only temporary where we think our domestic economy grows steadily and is in a better position compared to other emerging countries. Despite cheaper global equity valuations, the Indonesia equity valuation is still attractive because the earnings grow faster. Many sectors are just about to expand especially the service industry such as travel, health, education, etc. That will open more jobs and increase demand for goods and services. We suggest investors jump back into the ship and keep sailing as we approach the last quarter of 2022. This can be a strong quarter to close a tremendous year for Indonesia.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MICB | Reksa Dana Mandiri Investa Cerdas Bangsa berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang termasuk dalam indeks LQ45. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MANFIGA | Reksa Dana Indeks MANFIGA berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang terdapat di dalam Indeks FTSE Indonesia ESG. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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