The US equity market was shaken by higher energy prices which could hamper the current declining inflation trend. Additionally, The Fed held the benchmark rate at 5.5% but reemphasized the “higher for longer” monetary policy. That has caused US Treasury yields and DXY to increase resulting in the equity market to retreat. The US economy is, indeed, quite benign instead of deteriorated. Hence, the narrative of a soft-landing economy (benign recession) has emerged while a hard–landing economy (deep recession) has slowly faded.

On the other side, the economy in China is progressing slowly and therefore investors shifted out from China at the moment. Additionally, the global markets see the transition point of global policy rates. The central banks in developed countries are expected to hold their policy rates while some emerging countries are likely to cut their benchmark rates. Looking at the current global condition, we think investors should be more agile in investing as global equity can provide positive returns in the coming months.

The global equity market faced a baffling moment as the oil price rose due to lower production which could possibly affect current declining inflation. The Fed held the benchmark rate at 5.5% but restated “higher for longer” monetary policy. This affected US Treasuries yields jumped and DXY increased causing equity to retreat for days. However, many economists and investors that the world now is at the transition point of normalizing benchmark rates. Not only the US central banks, but others also held the policy rate the same as before.

Indonesian equities performed decent as the commodity sector thrived driven by oil prices. We see the exchange rate Rupiah depreciated at a slower pace compared to other Asian currencies. Bank Indonesia has anticipated a challenge in the exchange rate by starting to issue and trade SRBI (Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia) in September. Additionally, the government reacted fast in facing higher rice prices by increasing import quota and rice distribution for the next 3 months. The inflation in September only booked 2.28% and PMI Manufacturing still expanded at 52.3. The last three months in 2023 will be very exciting for investors as many events either globally or domestically, and budget distribution will drive the equity market.