Market Performance:

• Major Indices: US stocks performed well last week. S&P up 1.5% wow and Nasdaq 2.6% wow.
• Domestic Indices: it was a challenging week for domestic stocks especially for SOE banks and companies. JCI and LQ45 down 1.5% wow to 6,638 and 772, respectively.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:
  • US CPI Jan25 increased to 3.0% yoy, exceed forecasted number and previous month at 2.9% yoy. Same thing happened with core CPI Jan25 up 3.3% yoy, stronger the forecast 3.1% yoy and previous 3.2% yoy.
  • China Inflation rate in Jan25 increased 0.5% yoy, much higher than previous month 0,1% yoy.
  • Indonesia consumer confidence stable at 127.2 in Jan25 (vs 127.7 in Dec24).

 

• Geopolitic Events:
  • US and Russia will start talking on Ukraine war immediately.
  • EU plans US-style import ban on food.
  • US announced 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum imports.

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:
  • ISAT’s earning FY24 result came slightly short with decline in mobile subscribers. Tsel denied the rumor of price war through one product that indeed contributes small to sales.
  • BBCA started Jan25 with decent number: loan growth +15% yoy, net profit +6% yoy, NIM elevated +20% yoy.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: declined to 14.8 (vs 16.5 previous week).
• Bond Market: UST yield stable at 4.5%, while IndoGb yield stronger at 6.7% from previous week 6.9%.
• DXY: declining to 106, a bit lower from previous week at 108.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • BI rate decision in Feb25
  • Indonesia current account 4Q24
  • Japan inflation rate 1Q25
• Corporate events:
  • Indonesia Automotive show IIMS 2025.

 

Summary & recommendation:

The IndoGb yield has reached our target yield at 6.7%. Additionally, the US inflation in Jan25 exceeded market expectation, hence US bond yield can possibly increase. Investors can trim bond funds and switch to equity funds that have declined significantly.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MMUSD, RD MIPU, RD MGSED, RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG.

Tactical asset allocation: in February equity 42.5%, fixed income 42.5% and money market 15%.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-8,0%	-6,2%
LQ45	-11,8%	-6,6%
Equity
MITRA A	-9,2%	-6,7%
MICB A	-9,0%	-6,3%
ASEAN5	-9,7%	-7,0%
MGSED	+0,6%	+2,3%
Index
FTSE ESG A	-8,6%	-5,0%
ETF
XMLF	-10,8%	-6,6%
Balanced
MISB	+0,18%	+0,29%
MIA	-5,30%	-3,38%
Fixed Income
MIDU	+2,05%	+1,75%
MIDO2	+1,65%	+1,75%
IDAMAN	-0,71%	+0,77%
Money Market
MIPU A	+1,12%	+0,56%
MMUSD	+0,82%	+0,38%

*The data above is as of February 14th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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