Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Markets rebounded on predictions of faster rate cuts. S&P500 +0.9% WoW, Nasdaq +0.8% WoW.

• Domestic Indices: JCI briefly passed the 8000 mark on 15 August before closing at 7913 (+5% WoW). The large cap LQ45 returned +3.5% WoW. Foreign inflow was IDR 6.7tn this week.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • US CPI was below consensus in Jul 2025 with a 2.7% YoY increase (prev: 2.7%, cons: 2.8%). With downward driver from food and energy.

  • In contrast, US PPI posted an unexpected uptick in Jul 2025 with a 0.9% MoM increase in producer prices (prev: 0% cons: 0.2%).

  • China posted above consensus CPI of 0% YoY (prev: +0.1%, cons: -0.1%). However, PPI remains in deflation.

  • Japan posted 2Q25 GDP of +1% QoQ annualized (prev: +0.6%, cons: +0.4%), continually adding rationale for a BoJ rate hike.

  • Scott Bessent explicitly called for The Fed to start easing cycle on the back of the previously revised jobs data. The Treasury Secretary stated that the Fed Funds rate should be 150-175 bps lower from this point.

  • Indonesia presented its 2026 budget draft with key points including: 1.) 2026 GDP growth target set at 5.4%; 2.) Budget deficit set lower to -2.48% of GDP; 3.)Budget allocation is mainly on social programs including MBG budget.

  • This week SUN auction saw the all-time high demand with 162.3tn of incoming bids (YTD average: 87.3tn). This coincides with the issuance of the new 5-year FR109.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • The US extended tariff truce with China by 90 days, with new deadline being 10 November 2025. However, 10% reciprocal tariff would still be effective.

  • The US held summit with Russia in Alaska on 15 August 2025 to discuss Russia Ukraine war without concrete conclusion. Zelensky and other European leaders are set to meet Trump on Monday.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Cement Jul 2025 Volume: Jul25 domestic sales +18% MoM to 5.79mt, bringing 7M25 volume of 33mt (-3% YoY). Bag volume remains flat while bulk cement sales dropped 10% YoY.

  • Seven telco companies secure e-auction accounts for 1.4 GHz frequency including Telkom, Xlsmart, Indosat, Telemedia Komunikasi Pratama (WIFI IJ), Netciti, and Eka Mas Republik (Sinarmas).

  • GOTO posted in-line 2Q25 result with EBIT being positive for the first time at 21bn. The company is on track to meet its upper end of adjusted EBITDA guidance.

  • MAP group to bring back the Ace Hardware brand to Indonesia.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: Declined to 15.1.

• Bond Market: UST yield rose to 4.32% (prev: 4.22%). IndoGB yield rallied to 6.39% (prev: 6.58%).

• DXY: 97.9 (Prev: 99.1).

• Rupiah strengthened to Rp 16,160/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

  • Thursday, 21 August: Jackson Hole Symposium

  • Friday, 22 August: Indonesia M2

 

Summary & Recommendation

Foreign inflow has returned to the JCI on the back of government program rollout and higher growth prospects towards 2026. We recommend taking position on index funds to capture foreign flow momentum.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD Indeks FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF, SRI-Kehati, RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+12,19%	+11,56%
LQ45	+3,09%	-0,68%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+1,71%	-1,50%
MICB A	+0,79%	-1,47%
ASEAN5	+1,09%	-3,91%
MGSED	+8,05%	+6,87%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+2,85%	+3,28%
ETF
XMLF	+4,31%	+3,02%
BALANCED
MISB	+7,92%	+9,15%
MIA	+1,77%	+0,30%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,97%	+6,36%
MIDO2	+3,26%	+5,89%
IDAMAN A	+3,63%	+4,66%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,17%	+2,85%
MMUSD	+0,80%	+1,94%

*The data above is as of August 15th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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