Market Performance:

• Major Indices: a strong week for global stocks after the US – China trade deal. S&P 500 index was up 5.30% WoW and Nasdaq jumped 7.15% WoW.
• Domestic Indices: Following the global stocks, JCI increased 4.01% WoW and LQ45 also jumped 5.36% WoW. JCI was finally back to positive territory on YTD basis.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

1.US Producer Price Index PPI unexpectedly fell -0.5% MoM, (Prev: 0% Cons: 0.2%), the most in five years, largely due a slump in producer margin. This suggests that companies absorbed some of the hit from higher tariffs instead of passing it to the consumer.

2.Fitch downgraded US credit rating to Aa1, citing balooning deficits and government debt. US 10 year yield climbed to 4.47% on this news.

3.Jerome Powell stated that longer term interest rates are to remain higher due to economic volatility.  Powell also said policymakers are re assessing monetary policy decision framework regarding shortfalls in US employment and approach to inflation target.

4.BI reported Indonesia’s foreign debt in 1Q25 at $430.4bn, growing 6.4% from Q4 2024.

5.Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia, announced the plan to redirect Indonesian crude oil imports from Middle East and Africa to US to negotiate a reduction in the 32% reciprocal tariffs imposed by Trump.

6.Indonesia’s Makan Bergizi Gratis program starts rolling out with several kitchen openings, KADIN Indonesia contributed in opening 1000 kitchens.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

1.Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman claimed Saudi Arabia would invest $1 trillion in the US.

2.India and Pakistan agreed on ceasefire

3.The US stated that it is close on a nuclear deal with Iran, Oil slumped on this news.

4.Recent meeting between President Prabowo and Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, opened the dialogue for potential partnership on critical minerals

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:

1.Giant EV Battery manufacturer CATL listed on the Hong Kong Stock exchange in the 2025’s largest IPO to date with offering of USD 4.6bn. This IPO faced numerous problems such as US blacklisting and The US freezing US banks from underwriting

2.News circulated about Grab Indonesia denied the rumor of a USD 7bn merger with GOTO, GOTO slumped 8% after the news

3.Auto Sales: April 2025 4W wholesale 51.2k unit (-27% m/y, +5% y/y)

4.Cement industry volume grew +4.2% MoM, +29.3% YoY in April 2025, considering the low base last year due to Lebaran holiday that fell in April 2024.

5.BBCA 4M25 result: In-line earnings with operational metrics tracking guidance. Apr-25 net interest income grew 6% yoy with 4M25 NIM stood at 5.7% (+12bp yoy), in-line with the bank’s guidance of 5.7-5.8%.

6.MIDI Utama Indonesia (MIDI IJ) completed its divestment of the Lawson chain to its parent company, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)

7.Indonesia raised its export levy on crude palm oil from 7.5% to 10% starting May 17 to fund a biofuel program and replanting efforts in the world’s largest producer.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: 17.
• Bond Market: UST yield unchanged at 4.4%, same as IndoGb yield  unchaged at 6.9%.
• DXY: also unchanged much at 100.
• Rupiah strengthened to Rp 16,450/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

1.Country-by-country trade deals with the US until the end of the 90 day tariff pause.

2.Indonesian Banks April 2025 results

 

Summary & recommendation:

The rally in equity market has a leg and we recommend investors to take more risk in equity market rather than keep in money market or bond market.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+7,1%	+0,4%
LQ45	+4,4%	-2,5%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+4,9%	-2,1%
MICB A	+5,4%	-1,2%
ASEAN5	+3,3%	-3,9%
MGSED	-3,3%	-1,1%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+6,7%	+1,3%
ETF
XMLF	+7,0%	+0,0%
BALANCED
MISB	+1,33%	+1,63%
MIA	+2,66%	-0,81%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+1,62%	+3,39%
MIDO2	+0,97%	+2,74%
IDAMAN	+0,58%	+1,35%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,10%	+1,67%
MMUSD	+0,76%	+1,15%

*The data above is as of May 16th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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