Market Performance:

• Major Indices: US stocks post best week since Trump’s election win, S&P up 2.90% wow and Nasdaq 2.45% wow.
• Domestic Indices: BI pushes growth by lowering benchmark rate, LQ45 jumped 1.46% wowo and JCI up 0.93% wow.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:
  • US December 2024 inflation CPI inline with market forecast at 2.9% yoy, while core inflation CPI at 3.2% yoy lower than forecasted.
  • US December 2024 PPI inline at s3.5% yoy.
  • China met its 2024 GDP growth target of 5%,yoy, while 4Q24 at 5.4% yoy mainly from strong 4Q24 exports. (China recorded trade surplus growth of 21% y/y)
  • Bank Indonesia cut 25 bps BI Rate to 5.75%.
  • Indonesia trade balance December 2024 surplus USD 2.24 billion vs previous USD 4.37 billion.
• Geopolitic Events:
  • Israel Gaza entered ceasefire days before Trump sworn into office
  • Joe Biden gave his final presidential speech warning America of looming oligarchy dominance
  • South Korean President Arrested after multiple attempts
  • Oil reached 6 months high due to new sanctions over Russian oil and Iranian fleet, Brent Oil traded at above 82 USD/bbl.
• Sector Highlights:
  • With declining BI Rate, the banks’ Cost of Fund can adjust down. Hence, NIM can be expected to improve.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: lowered to 15.96 (vs 19.5 previous week).
• Bond Market: UST yield touched 4.8%, while IndoGb yield moved to 7,15% with high volatility in mid week.
• DXY: currently at 109, the highest since Oct23.

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • US President Inauguration
  • BoJ Interest Rate
  • China loan prime rate
• Corporate events:
  • US banks delivered strong 4Q24 results boosted by trading and investment banking operations.
  • TSMC posted 300% AI revenue, with outlook of higher future growth

 

Summary & recommendation:

A surprise cut by Bank Indonesia sent a signal that Central Bank will support growth. BI is confident that they have enough tools to defend Rupiah. This is a bold move that can drive stock market where all big cap stocks rallied. We think investor could consider money market funds and equity funds in this current situation.

 

Recommendation:

RD MMUSD, RD MIPU, RD MGSED, RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG.

Tactical asset allocation: equity 42.5%, fixed income 42.5% and money market 15%.

 

---

 

PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-7,5%	+1,1%
LQ45	-13,2%	+0,7%
Equity
MITRA A	-12,0%	-2,0%
MICB A	-11,4%	-1,3%
ASEAN5	-12,5%	-2,1%
MGSED	-1,5%	+0,3%
Index
FTSE ESG A	-10,3%	+1,5%
ETF
XMLF	-12,2%	+0,7%
Balanced
MISB	-2,13%	-0,64%
MIA	-8,91%	-1,66%
Fixed Income
MIDU	-0,28%	+0,09%
MIDO2	-2,03%	-0,83%
IDAMAN	-4,50%	-0,33%
Money Market
MIPU A	+1,14%	+0,22%
MMUSD	+0,83%	+0,14%

*The data above is as of January 17, 2025

 

---

For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

---

 

DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

Share It :