Market Performance:

• Major Indices: it was a volatile week for US stocks after the tariff pause. The market is waiting for direction on the trade deals. S&P fell 1.5% w/w and Nasdaq dropped 2.6% w/w.
• Domestic Indices: On the other side, the JCI jumped 2.8% w/w and LQ45 pushed higher 2.3% w/w. The tariff pause gives a chance for emerging markets to find solutions in match up with the Trump policy. Indonesia has room to negotiate because the import from the US can be increased easily and has been instructed by the president to do so.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:
  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence dropped to 121.1 in Mar25 from 126.4.
  • China 1Q25 GDP growth booked 5.4% yoy, same strong as previous quarter.
  • ECB cut the benchmark rate by 25bps to 2.25% as it prepares for the economic fallout from the trade war ignited by the US.

 

• Geopolitical Events:
  • The US government is planning to impose 245% tariff on Chinese products after China retaliate with the tariff on US product.
  • Trump ratchets up pressure on Fed chair Powell to cut rates.

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:
  • 4W wholesales in Mar25 dropped 5% yoy/-2% mom
  • Cement domestic volume in Mar25 declined 8% yoy.
  • Mining royalties hikes for nickel, gold, copper and bauxite is finalized and will be imposed starting 26 Apr25.
  • Telkom Indonesia booked inline FY24 EBITDA and earning results.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: declined 29 from previous week at 37 along with the cooling down tension after tariff pause.
• Bond Market: UST yield continued declining to 4.3%, while IndoGb yield dropped to 6.9%.
• DXY: Gets lower to 99.2 from last week 99.7. The DM currencies have strengthened against USD, and not EM currencies. Rupiah is still Rp16,820/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • BI monthly meeting on BI rates
  • Danantara potentially enter market by end of April.
• Corporate events:
  • BRI and TLKM plan to conduct share buyback.

 

Summary & recommendation:

We think the domestic equity and bond market have performed well last week. We saw the Indonesian government starts negotiating with the US government. The journey of negotiation still takes time and won’t be a clear cut immediately. We recommend investors to have USD money market and USD fixed income products as that is more suitable for current situation.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MGSED, RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG, RD IDAMAN, dan RD MMUSD.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-11,7%	-11,5%
LQ45	-13,9%	-14,5%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-13,0%	-14,7%
MICB A	-12,4%	-13,8%
ASEAN5	-14,5%	-16,2%
MGSED	-10,0%	-10,4%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-11,3%	-11,5%
ETF
XMLF	-12,9%	-13,5%
BALANCED
MISB	-2,48%	-2,92%
MIA	-7,60%	-8,83%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+1,89%	+1,76%
MIDO2	+1,42%	+0,82%
IDAMAN	-1,00%	-1,72%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,11%	+1,24%
MMUSD	+0,76%	+0,85%

*The data above is as of April 11th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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