Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Fresh economic data and healthy corporate results supported US indices. S&P500 +0.59% WoW, Nasdaq +1.51% WoW.
• Domestic indices: low-liquidity stocks drive JCI rally of +3.75% WoW while the large cap LQ45 returned -0.11% WoW.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

1.US CPI printed 2.7% YoY (prev: 2.4%, cons: 2.6%), driven by household energy utility. However, core CPI printed below at 0.2% MoM (prev: 0.1%, cons: 0.3%) due to declining car prices.

2.The Fed Beige Book showed an increase in industrial production until May 2025

3.China 2Q25 GDP printed 5.2% YoY (prev: 5.8%, cons: 5.1%,) mainly driven by strong industrial production. However, consumer and investment data start to show weakness.

4.Bank Indonesia delivered a surprise cut to the BI Rate by 25bps to 5.25% (prev: 5.5%, cons: 5.5%). BI remains pro growth and hinted rooms for further cuts.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

1.Indonesia reached a trade deal with The US with the following result:

• • • Indonesia will be subject to 19% tariff import to the US, US goods will not be subject to Indonesian tariffs
    • Indonesia will purchase USD 15bn worth of energy goods, USD 4.5bn in agriculture goods, and 50 Boeing Jets
    • Trans-shipments through Indonesia is subject to additional tariffs

2.The United States stated that it’s considering a tariff of up to 100% to Russia if there is no negotiations regarding The Russia Ukraine War

3.The United States increased EU tariffs to 30%. The EU decided not to retaliate until the 1 August deadline

4.Indonesia and The EU signed the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, lowering trade barriers between Indonesia and The EU

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:

1.MSCI revised its standard index methodology for stocks that has been placed in UMA. This cancel the inclusion ban put on BREN, CUAN, and PTRO for the August 2025 rebalancing announced in 9 August

2.Indonesia Property Companies reported 1H25 pre-sales performance that showed a better pre-sales QoQ, however it still shows softening on a YoY basis

3.After multiple extensions, the 100% PPN waiver for housing has ended. The PPN will be discounted by 50% from July-December 2025.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: 16.4.
• Bond Market: UST yield flat at 4.43%, IndoGB yield flat at 6.55%.
• DXY: 98.4 (Prev: 97.9).
• Rupiah weakened to Rp 16,290/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • Monday, 21 July: China Loan Prime rate
  • Tuesday, 22 July: Indonesia M2 growth YoY
  • Thursday, 24 July: US Jobless claim, S&P US and Global PMI.

 

Summary & recommendation:

Despite incrementally positive macro backdrop, foreign investors are still cautious on potentially soft 2Q corporate results. However, we think there is limited downside on foreign outflow risk and prefer all-caps with strong bottom-up story.

 

Product recommendation:
RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+13,57%	+3,28%
LQ45	+8,65%	-5,01%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+9,52%	-3,61%
MICB A	+7,92%	-3,93%
ASEAN5	+8,47%	-5,82%
MGSED	+18,19%	+5,51%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+7,09%	-2,19%
ETF
XMLF	+9,99%	-1,31%
BALANCED
MISB	+8,28%	+7,01%
MIA	+6,77%	-0,97%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+3,11%	+5,38%
MIDO2	+3,40%	+4,85%
IDAMAN A	+3,36%	+3,04%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,17%	+2,50%
MMUSD	+0,80%	+1,70%

*The data above is as of July 18th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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