Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Geopolitical tensions pushed US market into correction with S&P 500 index was down 0.5%% WoW and Nasdaq flat WoW.
• Domestic Indices: Amidst geopolitical tension and FTSE downgrade, JCI dropped 3.5% WoW and LQ45 also dropped 4.4% WoW.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

1.The Fed held the FFR at 4.5% (prev: 4.5%, cons: 4.5%) The FOMC also released its economic projections which forecasted higher inflation and slower growth. The dot plot indicates two fed rate cuts until the end of 2025

2.Bank of Japan held the benchmark rate at 0.5% (prev: 0.5%, cons: 0.5%).

3.Bank Indonesia held the BI Rate at 5.5% (prev: 5.5%, cons: 5.5%)

4.Indonesia Government 5M25 fiscal budget deficit amounted IDR 21tn (-0.1% GDP) with spending surging 13% MoM.

5.BI consumer confidence index dropped 4.2% MoM to 117.5, the lowest in 3 years.

6.Indonesia and Singapore have signed a MoU for the development of a renewable energy industrial zone. This brings potential for FDI into Indonesia

 

• Geopolitical Events:

1.The US strikes on Iran’s key nuclear facilities inflicted extremely severe damage and destruction.

2.The G7 stated Iran as ‘principal source of regional instability and terror’ and affirming Israel’s right to defend itself from Iran.

3.Thailand is facing a government crisis as protesters called on PM Paeongtarn Shinawatra to resign over undermining the army

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:

1.FTSE rebalanced its indices with a downgrade in Indonesian Equities that caused some outflow in JCI.

2.Indonesian Government will impose sanction on PT Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park for developing illegal land for its Morowali Industrial Park

3.Bumi Resources plans to acquire Wolfram Limited, an Australian copper-gold mine valued AU$ 33 million. BUMI would finance this purchase with a IDR 350bn bond offering.

4.May 2025 cement industry data shows soft demand persisting with -5% yoy volume growth

5.The government will not impose a levy on sugary drinks in 2025 according to Direktorat Jenderal Bea Cukai

6.Danantara will disburse IDR 130tn for housing projects with SOE Banks (Himbara) and Sharia Banks

7.ANTM has won its legal case against Budi Said in ‘fake gold’ case.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: 20.62. Bond Market: UST yield slightly rebounded to 4.38%, IndoGB yield corrected to 6.74%.
• DXY: weakened to 98.7. Rupiah strengthened to Rp 16,411/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

1.Further development in the Iran conflict, especially around Hormuz Strait

2.Development surrounding the end of the 90 day tariff pause ending July 9.

3.US PCE inflation

 

Summary & recommendation:

The correction in the equity market was mainly driven by rebalancing. With the tension in the Middle East, we see the energy price will increase. This might benefit commodity stocks, hence we recommend investors to collect all cap funds.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MITRA, RD MITRAS, RD ASEAN5, RD Index FTSE ESG, RD MGSED, RD MIDO2, RD MIDU.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+8,23%	-2,44%
LQ45	+7,71%	-7,47%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+10,42%	-6,27%
MICB A	+9,39%	-6,23%
ASEAN5	+8,40%	-8,28%
MGSED	+5,41%	+1,20%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+9,39%	-4,15%
ETF
XMLF	+11,80%	-3,97%
BALANCED
MISB	+3,96%	+1,81%
MIA	+6,44%	-3,00%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,28%	+4,24%
MIDO2	+2,35%	+3,59%
IDAMAN	+0,82%	+2,66%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,12%	+2,13%
MMUSD	+0,77%	+1,45%

*The data above is as of June 23th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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