Market Performance:

• Major Indices: US deficit fears erased week long gain. S&P 500 index was down 1,95% WoW and Nasdaq slumped 1,49% WoW.
• Domestic Indices: Following a stronger IDR and rate cut, JCI increased 1,51% WoW and LQ45 also increased 1,29% WoW. JCI was finally back to positive territory on YTD basis.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

1. 1. Bank Indonesia cut the BI 7DDR by 25 bps to 5.5% (Prev: 5.75%; Cons: 5.5%)
   2. Current account deficit narrowed sharply to $200mn (vs. $1.1bn in 4Q24; 0.45% GDP)
   3. Indonesia M2 growth slowed further to 5.2% y/y in April (Prev: 6.1%) driven by net foreign assets flow.
   4. April budget balance stands at 109tn in April (prev -73tn). Government revenue rose to 295tn in April (+84% m/m), 4M25 revenue is IDR810tn (-12% y/y)
   5. MoF released 2026 Budget Posture with the following: 1) GDP Growth projected at 5.2-5.8%. 2) Inflation 1.5-3.5%. 3) USDIDR set at 16,500-16,900.
   6. Starting 5th of June, government will rollout fiscal stimulus including Electricity for low-end segment, EV incentive, plane and toll discount, etc
   7. China’s fiscal stimulus pushed its budget deficit to a record high of 2.65 trillion yuan ($367 billion) for January-April (+50% y/y)

• Geopolitical Events:

1. 1. The US ratified a GOP tax bill cutting corporate taxes. This bill raises fear of ballooning fiscal deficit pushed US Treasury to 4.6% in its worst
   2. OPEC+ producers weighing another super-sized output hike in July potentially dragging oil price further down.
   3. Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine would “immediately” begin discussions on ending their war after he held a two-hour call with Vladimir Putin

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:

1. 1. SRI-KEHATI rebalancing, notable large caps inclusion: ASII, notable large caps exclusion: TLKM
   2. Indonesian Transport Workers Union (SPAI) along with online motorcycle (ojol) drivers, online taxis, and couriers held a demonstration on May 20, 2025, calling for a slash in
      current 50% application fees to 10% with a deadline of May 2025
   3. Garuda is in preliminary talks with Danantara, Indonesia’s SWF, about capital injection as the airline struggles to right its financial position
   4. Medco Energi signed a gas swap deal with Pertamina, PGN, and Singaporean traders, to secure gas supply in western Indonesia amid declining Sumatra output.
   5. Apr 25 domestic cement volume rose 29% y/y post Lebaran holiday (Prev: -22% y/y). Bag cement grew 33% y/y, and bulk cement grew 19.0% y/y.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: 20.
• UST yield increased sharply to 4.5% (Prev: 4.47%)
• IndoGB yield strengthen moderately 6.8%. (Prev: 6.9%)
• DXY: weakened to 99 (Prev: 100)
• Rupiah strengthened to Rp 16,320/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

1. 1. Country-by-country trade deals with the US until the end of the 90 day tariff pause.
   2. Indonesian Banks April 2025 results (BMRI, BBNI, BBRI)

 

Summary & recommendation:

We remain optimistic that the combination of the monetary policy rate cut by the central bank and the government’s fiscal stimulus will revive growth. The recent equity rally is poised to continue, presenting investors with an opportunity to increase their equity allocations. We recommend taking advantage of this momentum to add more equity funds to your portfolio

 

Product recommendation:

RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+6.0%	+1.9%
LQ45	+5.1%	-1.2%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+5.9%	-1.2%
MICB A	+6.5%	+0.0%
ASEAN5	+4.2%	-3.1%
MGSED	-2.2%	-1.2%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+8.0%	+2.8%
ETF
XMLF	+8.2%	+1.5%
BALANCED
MISB	+1.94%	+2.27%
MIA	+3.82%	+0.04%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+1.52%	+3.62%
MIDO2	+0.91%	+2.97%
IDAMAN	-0.26%	+0.99%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,10%	+1.76%
MMUSD	+0,77%	+1.21%

*The data above is as of May 23rd, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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