Market Performance:

• Major Indices: US stocks were down (S&P -1.65% WoW and Nasdaq -2.51% WoW) due to new tariffs and worries of softening consumer demand.
• Domestic Indices: IHSG slight down -0.4% WoW and LQ45 declined -2.5% WoW driven by local funds selling consumer stocks.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:
  • Indonesia Trade balance Jan25 reached USD3.45miliar (vs USD2.24miliar Dec24).
  • BI held the benchmark rate at 5,75% di Feb25, while loan growth in Dec24 at 10.27%.
  • Indonesia booked current account deficit in 4Q24 USD1,1bn (-0,3% t0 GDP), lower deficit than 3Q24 USD2bn (-0,6% to GDP). That built the full year 2024 CAD at 0.63% to GDP.
  • Japan inflation in Jan25 increased to 4% yoy vs 3,6% yoy di Dec24.

 

• Geopolitic Events:
  • The USA begins peace discussion with Russia over Ukraine in a summit in Saudi Arabia. The meeting was held without any representative from Ukraine and The European Union. The US stated that both sides had laid “the groundwork for future cooperation”
  • The conflict in Israel-Palestine continues to subside as more Israeli hostages are freed from Gaza and Israel withdrawing their forces from Lebanon
  • Xi Jinping gathers nation’s entrepreneur in tech in drive to shift Chinese economy driver into the private sector. Invitees include Jack Ma, who have been living in Japan after criticizing Chinese regulators, Liang Wenfeng (Founder of DeepSeek), and leaders of firms such as Tencent, BYD, and CATL.

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:
  • Automotive exhibition IIMS is started and Astra launched 3 new models New Camry Hybrid EV (HEV), New Corolla Cross HEV dan New Agya. New launched car below Rp500mn are not as many as above Rp500mn. The competitive car market is below Rp500jt.
  • PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI), which is affiliated with bankrupted stainless steel giant Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry Co., is delaying payments to local energy suppliers and is unable to procure nickel ore, according to people familiar with the situation. GNI has bank loans outstanding from BCA, Mandiri, and BNI.
  • Alfmart down 11% last week due to false rumor of negative SSSG. The company highlighted that SSSG in Jan25 is around 7%.
  • Several global corporates rolled back its Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) program, led by global banks such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citi

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: stable at 18.2 (vs 16.4 previous week).
• Bond Market: UST yield stable at 4.4% – 4.5%, while IndoGb yield declined to 6.8% .
• DXY: touched at 106, much lower from the recent peak at 109.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • US Inflation PCE data
• Corporate events:
  • Announcement of BPI Danantara structure.

 

Summary & recommendation:

The IndoGb yield has reached our target yield at 6.7%. Additionally, the US inflation in Jan25 exceeded market expectation, hence US bond yield can possibly increase. Investors can trim bond funds and switch to equity funds that have declined significantly.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MMUSD, RD MIPU, RD MGSED, RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG.

Tactical asset allocation: in February equity 42.5%, fixed income 42.5% and money market 15%.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-4,7%	-3,9%
LQ45	-10,3%	-6,0%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-8,1%	-6,7%
MICB A	-7,9%	-6,1%
ASEAN5	-8,6%	-7,0%
MGSED	+1,7%	+2,1%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-7,2%	-4,8%
ETF
XMLF	-9,4%	-6,1%
BALANCED
MISB	+0,55%	+0,33%
MIA	-4,87%	-3,64%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU	+2,15%	+2,07%
MIDO2	+1,77%	+2,04%
IDAMAN	+0,04%	+1,25%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,13%	+0,65%
MMUSD	+0,81%	+0,43%

*The data above is as of February 21st, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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