Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Markets went down in anticipation of Jackson Hole, then it rebounded. S&P500 +0.2% WoW, Nasdaq -0.6% WoW.

• Domestic Indices: JCI corrected 0.5% WoW on the back of MSCI downweight on heavyweight stock. The large cap LQ45 returned +0.14% WoW. Foreign flow was IDR +2.7tn this week.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautiously optimistic tone in his final Jackson Hole speech, signaling that evolving risks in the labor market, especially the marked slowdown in both hiring and labor force growth could justify a policy adjustment as early as the Fed’s September meeting.

  • BI delivered another surprise rate-cut to 5% (prev: 5.25%), bringing total cuts to 100bps YTD, BI maintained its pro growth stance.

  • Indonesia current account deficit recorded at USD 3bn (prev: 0.23bn deficit, cons: 2.83 deficit), this deficit is driven by imports.

  • Indonesia government plans to place up to IDR 83 tn in SOE banks to support low interest loans for Koperasi Desa Merah Putih.

  • Home purchase VAT discount to be extended until 2026 with an IDR 3.4tn budget.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • Volodymr Zelensky and various European leaders met Donald Trump for talks on ending the war in Ukraine. The US proposed a meeting between Ukraine and Russia, with The US mediating.

  • Some regions in Indonesia went into unrest as a response for a proposal to increase municipal property tax to 250% in some regions.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Astra Group announced a strategic review to be more in line with other Jardine Group companies by implementing a focus on Total Shareholder Return with focus on:

    • accretive asset disposals

    • special dividends

    • share buybacks

  • PGEO just signed a Head of Agreement with PLN Indonesia Power to form a consortium for two geothermal projects: Ulubelu and Lahendong worth 45 MW. They are also planning to explore up to 530 MW of geothermal wells.

  • BBCA 7M25 result: resilient profit of IDR 34t (+11% YoY), above consensus. However bank has started showing slightly lower NIM of 6%.

  • BCA and Danantara denied any rumored attempt on a BCA takeover by the government. The noise came when an economist recommended the government to retake BCA.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: Declined to 14.2.

• Bond Market:

  • UST yield rose to 4.25% (prev: 4.32%).

  • IndoGB yield flat at 6.37%.

• DXY: 97.2.

• Rupiah weakened to Rp 16,340/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

  • Thursday, 28 August: US 2Q25 GDP

  • Friday, 29 August: US Core PCE Index

 

Summary & Recommendation

Foreign inflow has returned to the JCI on the back of government program rollout and higher growth prospects towards 2026. We recommend taking position on index funds to capture foreign flow momentum.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD Indeks FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF, SRI-Kehati, RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+12,19%	+11,56%
LQ45	+3,09%	-0,68%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+1,71%	-1,50%
MICB A	+0,79%	-1,47%
ASEAN5	+1,09%	-3,91%
MGSED	+8,05%	+6,87%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+2,85%	+3,28%
ETF
XMLF	+4,31%	+3,02%
BALANCED
MISB	+7,92%	+9,15%
MIA	+1,77%	+0,30%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,97%	+6,36%
MIDO2	+3,26%	+5,89%
IDAMAN A	+3,63%	+4,66%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,17%	+2,85%
MMUSD	+0,80%	+1,94%

*The data above is as of August 15th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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