Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Tariff certainty and healthy corporate results supported US indices. S&P500 +1.4% WoW, Nasdaq +1% WoW .

• Domestic Indices: JCI rally of +3.17% WoW brings back JCI to 7500 territory while the large cap LQ45 returned +1.18% WoW.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • S&P global manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.5 (prev: 52.9)
  • Indonesia M2 growth reached 6.5% YoY in June (prev: 4.9% YoY) mainly driven by increasing government expenditure
  • President Prabowo launched the Koperasi Merah Putih project with a targeted 80 thousand koperasi in 2025. The Koperasi could borrow up to IDR 3bn from SOE banks with 6% interest rate.
  • MoF agreed to raise subsidized housing quota to 350 thousand units (prev: 220 thousand) worth IDR 40tn.

• Geopolitical Events:

• • Indonesia established a trade framework with The US:
    • Indonesia would waive tariff for most imports from The US
    • Indonesia will revisit non-tariff measure for US goods including TKDN policy and agriculture import quota
    • Indonesia would remove export restrictions on industrial minerals, including critical minerals.
  • The US has agreed on a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, marking the largest economy that has struck deal with US to date.
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said to step down after majority loss in the parliament.
  • The US and EU said to be close to a 15% tariff deal.

• Corporate/Sector News:
  • BBNI 6M25 results below consensus earnings on the back of NIM compression and soft loan growth. BNI revised down its NIM guidance to 3.8% (prev: 4-4.2%)
  • BYD launched the Atto 1 in GIIAS 2025, boasting a 300 KM range with starting price of IDR 195mn
  • Chinese Authorities are investigating possible overproduction on Chinese coal mines and threatened shutdown if they found violations. Coking coal price reacted positively to the news
  • China inaugurated the construction of a hydropower plant super project that would spur investment.

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: Declined at 14.9.
• Bond Market:
  • UST yield down to 4.38% (prev: 4.43%)
  • IndoGB yield flat at 6.52%
• DXY: 97.7 (Prev: 98.4). 
• Rupiah weakened to Rp 16,315/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • Indonesia banks and corporate 2Q earnings
  • Thursday, 31 Jul: FOMC meeting (consensus: Hold), US PMI
  • Friday, 1 Aug: S&P US PMI, Indonesia Inflation, Indonesia Trade Balance

 

Summary & Recommendation
JCI started to rebound and hit the 7500 territory on the back of incrementally positive macro backdrop. However, there is still risk on a weaker 2Q earnings. We think there is limited downside on foreign outflow risk and prefer all-caps with strong bottom-up story.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MISDYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+13,27%	+7,55%
LQ45	+6,57%	-2,83%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+6,22%	-2,63%
MICB A	+4,57%	-2,59%
ASEAN5	+5,48%	-4,92%
MGSED	+14,57%	+6,29%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+5,13%	-0,13%
ETF
XMLF	+7,91%	+0,88%
BALANCED
MISB	+8,41%	+8,10%
MIA	+5,16%	+0,12%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,90%	+5,73%
MIDO2	+3,00%	+5,16%
IDAMAN A	+2,03%	+3,63%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,16%	+2,63%
MMUSD	+0,79%	+1,79%

*The data above is as of July 28th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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