Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Easing geopolitics pushed markets into rebound. S&P500 returned +3.4% WoW while Nasdaq returned +4.2% WoW. Eather S&P and Nasdaq booked a record high.
• Domestic indices mixed with JCI -0.14% WoW while the large cap LQ45 returned +0.74% WoW.

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:
  1. The US inflation PCE in May was recorded 2.3% yoy, where same as expectation at 2.3% yoy, while core PCE 2.7% yoy, that higher than expectation 2.6%. Interestingly, the US  personal income was slower -1.4% mom and personal spending 0.1% mom.
  2. Fed Chair Powell continues to reiterate a wait and see approach before cutting rates, contrasting dovish statements by other governors.
  3. BI Reported May 2025 M2  was +4.9% YoY, slower than  April: +5.2% YoY, this is led by credit growth and net claims to central government.
  4. Indonesia reduced its free meals budget to USD 7.5bn in 2025 (-29%), and USD 21.4bn in 2026 (-22%).
  5. Indonesia expected to launch Koperasi Merah Putih in 12 July 2025, which is expected to create 1.6mn jobs. These koperasi would be able to borrow from SOE banks.

 

• Geopolitical Events:
  1. US – China agreed to lift a series of restrictive measures imposed by the US on China, while China will make it easier for American firms to acquire Chinese rare earth minerals critical for manufacturing and microchip production.
  2. After US push for ‘unconditional surrender’ and the strike on Iran’s nuclear assets, conflict seemed to de-escalate with Iran and Israel entering talks next week
  3. Donald Trump ended trade negotiations with Canada after Canada proposed a digital service tax for US tech companies
  4. NATO countries agreed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, as per The US’s urging

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:
  1. Bank Results
     1. BMRI printed below consensus result with flat profits YoY
     2. BBNI showed MoM improvement with net profit growth of 5% MoM, but profit is still below YoY with -1% growth.
     3. BBRI showed negative 15% YoY profit growth due to increasing credit cost.
     4. BBCA profits come in line with +12% YoY profit growth mainly driven by NIM expansion.
  2. Other Sectors
     1. Indonesia cement industry posted -5% YoY growth driven by slow bulk sales growth.
     2. Danantara approved a USD 405mn shareholder loan to Garuda Indonesia for maintenance, repair, and overhaul.
     3. Djarum Group purchased IDR 1tn of HEAL treasury sales, acquiring a 4% stake.
     4. Indonesia government will require e-commerce platform earning between IDR 500mn-IDR 4.8bn to pay income tax of 0.5%.

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: 16.3.
• Bond Market: UST yield rebounded to 4.27% (Prev: 4.38), IndoGB yield rallied to 6.63% (Prev: 6.71%).
• DXY: weakened to 97.4 (Prev: 98.7).
• Rupiah strengthened to Rp 16,205/USD.

Looking Ahead:

• Indonesia June CPI, trade balance, PMI ManufacturingI: 1 July 2025
• US PMI Manufacturing and JOLTS Jobs openings: 1 July 2025
• Donald Trump tariff deadline: 9 July 2025

Summary & recommendation:

 The US equity and bond market rallied as a sign of de-escalation in Middle East. The exchange rate Rupiah has strengthened to last year end level. We think the domestic equity market can make a comeback following the global market rally. Meanwhile, the domestic bond market is in the better position as current ample liquidity is tailwind for investors.

Product recommendation:

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MITRAS, RD MGSED, RD MIDO2 and RD MIDU.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+6,57%	-2,58%
LQ45	+5,39%	-6,78%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+7,24%	-6,45%
MICB A	+6,18%	-6,16%
ASEAN5	+5,34%	-8,48%
MGSED	+7,27%	+2,76%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+6,26%	-3,20%
ETF
XMLF	+9,15%	-3,11%
BALANCED
MISB	+3,14%	+0,56%
MIA	+5,05%	-3,11%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,95%	+4,59%
MIDO2	+3,38%	+3,93%
IDAMAN	+2,47%	+3,30%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,13%	+2,21%
MMUSD	+0,79%	+1,52%

*The data above is as of June 26th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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