Market Performance:

• Major Indices: US stocks were down (S&P -0.95% WoW and Nasdaq -3.47% WoW) driven by the fear of US economy condition if all the tariffs in place. The market worried on the high inflation would hit back at the same time US products become less competitive in global market.
• Domestic Indices: IHSG fell almost 8% wow and LQ45 down 9.4% wow in one week. All negative sentiments came at once: unclear understanding on Danantara souvereign wealth fund, Pertamina corruption case, weak BBRI ‘s Jan25 performance. This is a rare week where not many times happened.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data and News:
  • US PCE Inflation slightly declined to 2.5% yoy in Jan25 (vs 2.6% yoy in Dec24), while core PCE inflation declined to 2.6% yoy from previous 2.9% yoy.
  • US GDP for 4Q24 is in line with consensus at 2.3%yoy (vs 3.1% yoy in 3Q24)
  • The Indonesian Government launched BPI Danatara led by Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani (CEO), businessman Pandu Sjahrir (CIO), and Vice Minister of SOE Dony Oskaria (COO). Danatara will be supervised by the SOE Ministry, various government organization, and former presidents. Danatara will take six weeks to build its team before commencing operations.

 

• Geopolitics Events:
  • US President Trump cut short Ukraine President Zelenskyy meeting after fiery White House clash. The leaders were supposedly set to a peace talk how to end war and sign a mineral deal, but has ended without being signed.
  • The conservative coalition has overtaken the incumbent party in Germany’s election with 50% of the country’s vote. Friederich Merz, the possible next chancellor stated that Europe could no longer rely on America for its defense.

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:
  • Indonesian Government and Apple have reportedly reached an agreement to lift the ban on the iPhone 16 series, allowing sale of iPhone 16 in the country.
  • Indonesia Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources passed a regulation on coal benchmark prices which acts as a ceiling price for coal exports coming out of Indonesia. The new pricing scheme is expected to reduce volatility and will be effective in 1st of March.
  • ASII posted above-consensus FY2024 earnings of IDR34.1 tn, mainly driven by heavy equipment, financial services, and CPO business.
  • BBRI’s earnings reached only 3% of Cons. Net profit were down by -58% YoY. Net earnings decline driven a sizeable front-loaded provisioning in Jan-25 (5.6%, Dec-24: 1.2%), on top of NIM compression caused by lower yields (6.6%, Dec-24: 7.4%).

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: Rose to 19,63 (vs 18.2 previous week).
• Bond Market: UST yield rallied to 4,20%, while IndoGb yield declined to 6.93% .
• DXY: Inched up 107 (prev: 106)

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • US Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment rate
  • ID Inflation
  • PMI Manufacturing

Summary & recommendation:

The deep correction both in stocks and bonds market are leaving the market a big question on how deep it can go. Investors are puzzled on the situation and became aware on the situation. This is a good moment to slowly accumulate the position when every one on the bearish mode. We see the correction was more due to negative sentiment, rather than fundamental of the companies.

Investors should add equity, especially US Dollar stocks, while keep maintaining money market funds.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MMUSD, RD MIPU, RD MGSED, RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG.

Tactical asset allocation: in February equity 42.5%, fixed income 42.5% and money market 15%.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-12,9%	-11,4%
LQ45	-19,4%	-14,9%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-16,0%	-14,3%
MICB A	-15,9%	-13,6%
ASEAN5	-16,5%	-14,6%
MGSED	-2,2%	-1,5%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-17,2%	-13,4%
ETF
XMLF	-18,5%	-14,8%
BALANCED
MISB	-1,68%	-1,54%
MIA	-9,76%	-8,59%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU	+1,67%	+1,73%
MIDO2	+1,13%	+1,49%
IDAMAN	-0,16%	+2,31%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,12%	+0,73%
MMUSD	+0,80%	+0,49%

*The data above is as of February 28th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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