Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Fears over The Fed Independence and outflow from some tech names drove market correction. S&P500 -0.1% WoW, Nasdaq -0.2% WoW.

• Domestic Indices: Markets pared gains due widespread riots on Friday. The JCI declined 0.3%. The large cap LQ45 returned -3% WoW amidst heavy selloff in large caps. Foreign inflow maintained at +USD 275 mn WoW.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • US Core PCE inflation edged up YoY for the third consecutive month in July, reaching +2.9% YoY In 2Q25 (Prev: 2.8%, cons: 2.9%).

  • US Chicago PMI posted a sharp drop with Jul number printing 41.5 (prev: 47.1, cons: 46.6).

  • US annualized GDP was revised to +3.3% QoQ (prev est: +3.0% QoQ, cons: +3.0% QoQ, 1Q25: -0.5% QoQ).

  • Donald Trump announced that he would fire Fed governor Lisa Cook amidst allegation of fraud.

  • Danantara plans to raise Rp50tn (US$3.1bn) by selling patriot bonds with a tenor of 5 & 7 years and 2% coupon (vs. current BI rate of 5.0%). Bonds to be issued on Oct 1. Proceeds will be used for energy transition and waste management projects.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • The US finalized its tariff on Indian goods to 50% on the back of Indian purchase of Russian oil.

  • Tensions increased in Gaza as Israel continued aggression on Gaza with at least 20 casualties.

  • Various world leaders including North Korea and Russia’s leaders will attend military parade in Beijing on 3rd September.

  • Protests in Jakarta over lawmakers’ high salaries escalated into riots after a police-related casualty.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Big banks 7M25 results showed broad weakness most banks underperforming analyst expectations. We still see slower loan growth and NIM compression that pressured profits.

  • EXCL posted an IDR 1.2tn net loss in 2Q25 post merger with Smartfren. Company expected more integration costs from merger and guides future synergies.

  • PGAS overhauled its board of directors and commissioners after a four-year tenure.

  • Danantara has co-invested in INCO’s HPAL Project with GEM.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: Increased to 15.3.

• Bond Market:

  • UST yield flat at 4.26%.

  • IndoGB yield flat at 6.32%.

• DXY: 97.7.

• Rupiah weakened to Rp 16,490/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

  • Monday, 1 September: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Indonesia Inflation, Indonesia Trade Balance

  • Tuesday, 2 September: ISM US PMI, S&P PMI

  • Wednesday, 3 September: JOTLS Job opening

 

Summary & Recommendation

Foreign inflows have returned to the JCI, supported by the government’s program rollout and improving growth prospects heading into 2026. We recommend taking positions in index funds to capture this foreign flow momentum. At the same time, given elevated political risks, we anticipate near-term volatility and advise tactically holding 5–10% of the portfolio in cash as a buffer.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD Indeks FTSE, ETF LQ45, ETF, SRI-Kehati, RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+9,12%	+10,60%
LQ45	-2,17%	-3,57%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-2,44%	-3,37%
MICB A	-3,87%	-3,72%
ASEAN5	-2,96%	-5,81%
MGSED	+7,28%	+6,69%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-2,37%	+0,08%
ETF
XMLF	+1,32%	-0,04%
BALANCED
MISB	+7,76%	+9,92%
MIA	-0,27%	-0,31%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+3,09%	+6,87%
MIDO2	+3,19%	+6,28%
IDAMAN A	+2,85%	+4,51%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,18%	+3,02%
MMUSD	+0,78%	+2,06%

*The data above is as of August 29th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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