Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Major indices corrected post FOMC meeting and shock in jobs data, S&P500 -2.3% WoW and Nasdaq -2.17% Wo

• Domestic Indices: JCI flattish with -0.08% WoW, still in 7500 territory while the large cap LQ45 returned +0.3% WoW following weak earnings season.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • The FOMC held the Fed Funds rate at 4.25% with The Fed putting a more hawkish stance.

  • The US printed 2Q25 GDP growth of 3% QoQ annualized (prev: -0.5%, cons: 2.5%)

  • US July 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls below consensus with 73k new jobs (prev: 147k, cons: 104k). Unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% (prev: 4.1%, cons: 4.2%)

  • China PMI slightly entered contraction in July with 49.5 (prev: 50.4)

  • Indonesia inflation picked up to 2.4% YoY in July 2025 (prev: 1.9%, cons: 2.3%) mainly driven by food prices

  • Indonesia trade surplus narrowed to 4.1bn in June (prev: 4.3bn, cons: 3.4bn) driven by strong CPO exports

  • Indonesia’s FDI decreased by -6.9% YoY to Rp202tn in 2Q25, while domestic direct investments remained strong at +30.5% YoY. Hence total investment grew at +11.5% YoY

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • US concluded negotiations with several countries with most getting 15% rate

    • India hit by 25% tariffs

    • Taiwan was hit by a 20% tariff

    • Canada tariff rate increased to 35% (prev: 25%)

    • ASEAN Countries mostly hit with 19% tariffs, with the exception of Laos and Myanmar who were hit by 40% tariff

  • American copper prices tumbled after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50% import tariff on refined copper, effective August 1, 2025, excluding raw materials and cathodes

  • Thailand and Cambodia briefly entered conflict over a border dispute, peace was made soon after

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • Big banks results mostly came below with only BCA posting in-line results. Other big banks posted below-expectation result due to NIM compression from tight liquidity. Only BMRI has not posted its 2Q25 earnings

  • Corporate 2Q25 results showed mixed result:

    • 77% of companies achieving revenue expectations or better

    • However, most companies experienced cost pressure that led to 47% of companies achieving below-expectations net profits

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: Increased to 20.4

• Bond Market:

  • UST yield down to 4.22% (prev: 4.38%)

  • IndoGB yield flat at 6.58%

• DXY: 99.1 (prev: 97.7)

• Rupiah weakened to Rp 16,490/USD

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • Tuesday, 5 August: Indonesia 2Q25 GDP

 

Summary & Recommendation
JCI started earnings season with a weaker 2Q earnings. However, we think there is limited foreign outflow risk on the back of an incrementally positive macro backdrop. We prefer all-caps with strong bottom-up story.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+11,39%	+6,47%
LQ45	+4,64%	-3,61%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+3,83%	-3,65%
MICB A	+2,71%	-3,48%
ASEAN5	+3,11%	-5,94%
MGSED	+13,86%	+6,03%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+3,07%	-1,08%
ETF
XMLF	+5,95%	+0,04%
BALANCED
MISB	+7,88%	+8,34%
MIA	+3,77%	-0,39%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,60%	+5,63%
MIDO2	+2,60%	+5,13%
IDAMAN A	+1,75%	+3,63%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,19%	+2,68%
MMUSD	+0,81%	+1,83%

*The data above is as of August 1st, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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