Market Performance:

• Major Indices: US stocks are stable (S&P -0.25% wow and Nasdaq -0.53% wow) where most of big cap full year results were in good shape.
• Domestic Indices: The BMRI’s full year result has not met the market expectation and forward guidance was not convincing causing deep correction of the stock. MSCI excluded BREN and CUAN from index inclusion resulting in deep correction where those are two heavy weighting in index. LQ45 fell 4.74% wow and JCI sank 5.93% wow.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:
  • PMI Manufaktur S&P AS Jan’25 51,2 (vs Des’24 50,1), PMI Manufaktur ISM AS Jan’25 50,9 (vs Des’24 49,3)
  • Tingkat Pengangguran AS Jan’25 4,0% (vs Des’24 4,1%), Non-Farm Payrolls AS Jan’25 143 ribu (vs Des’24 307 ribu). JOLTs Job Opening AS Des’24 7,6 juta (vs Nov’24 8,16 juta)
  • PMI Manufaktur Caixin China Jan’25 50,1 (vs Des’24 50,5)
  • PMI Manufaktur S&P Indonesia Jan’25 51,9 (vs Des’24 51,2)
  • Inflasi Indonesia Jan’25 0,76% (vs Des’24 1,57%), Inflasi Inti 2,36% (vs Des’24 2,26%)
  • Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Jan’25 USD 156,1 miliar (vs Des’24 USD 155,7 miliar)

• Geopolitic Events:
  • President Trump proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico paused for 30 days, just 72 hours after the executive orders signed.
  • China counters with tariffs on US products
  • US plans to rebuild Gaza
  • EU prepares to hit big tech in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.
  • US demands halt to all existing foreign aids (USDAID).

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:
  • BMRI FY24 result below consensus and the company’s guidance for 2025 creates uncertainty.
  • Strong US companies’ results: Alphabet, Novo Nordisk, Walt Disney, Uber, Palantir.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: stable at 16.5 (vs 16.4 previous week).
• Bond Market: UST yield declined to 4.5%, while IndoGb yield lower to 6.9% with high volatility in mid week.
• DXY: currently at 108, a bit lower from the recent peak at 109.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • US Inflation data
• Corporate events:
  • Mandiri Investment Forum where President Prabowo and his ministers will give view on current situation.

 

Summary & recommendation:

The situation in US government policy is still unclear as the tariffs to Canada and Mexico paused just 72 hours after the decision made. Investors are carefully assessing the situation which can made many sectors in the US impacted. Domestic market was underpressured due to BMRI’s result and guidance. However, we think the overall indexes have more chance to rebound than further correction.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MMUSD, RD MIPU, RD MGSED, RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG.

Tactical asset allocationin February :

• Equity 42.5%
• Fixed income 42.5%
• Money market 15%.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-6,9%	-4,8%
LQ45	-11,5%	-5,1%
Equity
MITRA A	-10,3%	-5,5%
MICB A	-9,8%	-5,0%
ASEAN5	-10,8%	-5,8%
MGSED	-0,1%	+2,4%
Index
FTSE ESG A	-8,3%	-3,3%
ETF
XMLF	-10,5%	-5,0%
Balanced
MISB	-0,67%	-0,07%
MIA	-6,31%	-3,06%
Fixed Income
MIDU	+1,35%	+1,34%
MIDO2	+0,52%	+1,24%
IDAMAN	-0,37%	+1,40%
Money Market
MIPU A	+1,13%	+0,48%
MMUSD	+0,82%	+0,32%

*The data above is as of February 7th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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