Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Better than expected jobs data pushed US equities higher. S&P500 returned +1,72% WoW while Nasdaq returned 1,62% WoW.
• Domestic indices under pressure in anticipation of US trade deal, JCI down 0,51% WoW, LQ45 down 0,95% WoW.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

1.The US Congress approved the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’  that would bring tax reductions, spending for border security, and budget cuts to welfare programs and clean-energy

2.June 2025 PMI

1.US: 52.9 (prev: 52)

2.China:  50.4 (Prev: 48.3)

3.Indonesia: 46.9 (Prev: 47.4)

3.US Unemployment: 4.1% (Prev: 4.2%, cons: 4.3%), while US Nonfarm Payroll +147k (Prev: 144k, Cons: 111k)

4.Indonesia June CPI: 1.9% YoY (Prev: 1.6%) core CPI remains flat at 2.4% YoY

5.Indonesia trade surplus widened to USD 4.3bn (prev: 0.2bn) in May 2025, providing a positive surprise (cons: 2.4bn)

6.Indonesia Tax revenue improved further in Jun-25 where it grew 13% MoM, making the 6M25 figure to -4% in 6M25 (from -7% in 5M25). While government spending finally saw some growth by 1% y-y in 6M25 (from -16% in 5M25)

7.Indonesia Government relaxes Import restrictions to 10 group of raw materials to support down streaming. However, imports for vital goods such as textile will be further restricted.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

1.The US agreed on a tariff deal of 20% import tariff from Vietnam with 40% tariff on trans-shipment

2.Donald Trump said he’ll start sending out letters to trading partners today setting unilateral tariff rates. Countries would have to begin paying on Aug. 1

3.Indonesia is said to draw MoU with the US regarding trade involving Danantara, ICBP, and GIAA.

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:

1.The ESDM Minister has announced the move to undo last year’s implementation of the three-year mining quota approval process back to one-year effective 2026.

2.Danantara signed MoU with ACWA Power, the biggest energy company in Saudi Arabia, for $10bn (Rp162tn) for renewable energy project.

3.Bank Mandiri announced an EGMS to be held in August, details about the EGMS is pending.

4.OJK postponed insurance co-payment which previously was set to be implemented in 2026

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: 17,52.
• Bond Market: UST yield rebounded to 4.31% (Prev: 4.27), IndoGB yield slightly rallied to 6.6% (Prev: 6.63%).
• DXY: weakened to 96,9 (Prev 97,4).
• Rupiah strengthened to Rp 16,200/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • Donald Trump tariff deadline: 9 July 2025

 

Summary & recommendation:

The market is waiting for the trade deal with the US which is come to deadline on 9 July. Additionally, investors are waiting for clarity of the Bank Mandiri’s EGMS  in early August. This can be the overhang on other SOE stocks and JCI eventually. We think current condition is preferably on all cap stocks (RD MITRA) and short duration bond fund (RD MIDU).

 

Product recommendation:

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MGSED, RD MIDU, RD MIDO2.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+5,45%	-3,03%
LQ45	+3,95%	-7,64%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+7,41%	-5,87%
MICB A	+6,02%	-5,97%
ASEAN5	+5,40%	-7,97%
MGSED	+10,07%	+5,03%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+4,43%	-4,36%
ETF
XMLF	+7,73%	-3,94%
BALANCED
MISB	+5,07%	+2,67%
MIA	+4,22%	-3,24%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+2,96%	+4,83%
MIDO2	+3,28%	+4,30%
IDAMAN	+3,05%	+3,61%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,23%	+2,32%
MMUSD	+0,85%	+1,59%

*The data above is as of July 4th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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