Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Major indices rebounded along with strong corporate results. S&P500 +2.4% WoW, Nasdaq +3.87% WoW.

• Domestic Indices: JCI flattish with -0.06% WoW, still in 7500 territory while the large cap LQ45 returned -0.5% WoW from foreign outflow.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

• • Further revision on US NFP data showed weakness from as early as May as May-June data was revised down by 256k jobs.

  • Indonesia posted a higher-than-expected 2Q25 GDP, with the economy growing 5.1% YoY (prev: 4.8%, cons: 4.9%) driven by a recovery in domestic investment (Investment portion increased 7% YoY).

  • Sri Mulyani plans to release 10.8tn of stimulus during 3Q25. The stimulus will focus on Prabowo’s main programs (free lunch, school reparation).

  • Indonesia FX Reserve contracted slightly to USD 152bn (prev: 152.6bn) mainly from debt repayment and currency stabilization policies. However, FX reserves remain robust as it still covers 6.2 month of debt payments and imports.

  • Indonesia raised its first Kangaroo Bond with an AUD 800mn issuance.

 

• Geopolitical Events:

• • India was hit with a further 25% tariff for buying oil from Russia, bringing final tariff of 50%.

  • Indonesia is granted a 0% tariff for copper products exported to the US.

  • 100% tariff placed for semiconductors. Tariff would be waived for companies who committed to investing in US manufacturing plants.

 

• Corporate/Sector News:

  • MSCI rebalanced its global standard index with the following change to Indonesia:

    • Additions: CUAN, DSSA. Small cap indices: AADI, KPIG, PTRO, RATU, TAPG

    • Moved to small caps: ADRO

    • Deletions: MBMA, PNLF

  • Jul 2025 auto sales data showed continued weakening despite the GIIAS 2025 expo.

    • 4W wholesale: 61k units (-18% YoY), 7M25: 436k (-10% YoY), 48% of Gaikindo’s full-year target

    • 2W sales: 581k units (-2% YoY), 7M25: 3.7mn (-2% YoY), 55% of AISI’s full-year target

    • Chinese brand captured 9% market share as of July 2025, bringing Astra market share to 53% (July 2024: 57%)

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: Dropped to 15.2.

• Bond Market:

  • UST yield increased to 4.28% (prev: 4.22%)

  • IndoGB yield rallied to 6.42% (prev: 6.58%)

• DXY: 98.1 (Prev: 99.1)

• Rupiah: Strengthened to Rp 16,290/USD

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

  • Tuesday, 12 August: US CPI, US-China trade deal

  • Thursday, 14 August: US Jobless Claims

 

Summary & Recommendation
JCI started earnings season with a weaker 2Q earnings. However, we think there is limited foreign outflow risk on the back of an incrementally positive macro backdrop. We prefer all-caps with strong bottom-up story.

 

Product recommendation: 

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDU, RD MIDSYA, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUK	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+10,33%	+6,41%
LQ45	+3,81%	-4,08%
Saham
MITRA A	+3,17%	-3,92%
MICB A	+1,83%	-4,01%
ASEAN5	+2,52%	-6,24%
MGSED	+10,85%	+5,61%
Indeks
FTSE ESG A	+3,15%	-1,18%
ETF
XMLF	+5,00%	-0,47%
Campuran
MISB	+7,71%	+8,62%
MIA	+3,16%	-0,63%
Pendapatan Tetap
MIDU A	+2,90%	+6,22%
MIDO2	+3,06%	+5,75%
IDAMAN A	+2,90%	+6,22%
Pasar Uang
MIPU A	+1,18%	+2,77%
MMUSD	+0,80%	+1,88%

*The data above is as of August 8th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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