Market Performance:

• Major Indices: major global stock indexes jumped as US – China reached the deal and the rally is likely continue.
• Domestic Indices: JCI and LQ45 held up quite well last week and are expected to rally along with other indexes.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

1.The Fed hold rates of 4.5% during 7 May Meeting. Commentary from J. Powell proved he is comfortable to wait and see as there is no deterioration in the hard data.

2.China Exports +8.1% t/t (Prev: 12.4%, cons: 1.9%), trade balance reached USD 689B (Prev: 736B, cons: 701B)

3.Bank of England cuts interest rate by 25bps to 4.25%

4.Indonesia 1Q25 GDP +4.87% q/q (Prev: 5.02%, cons: 4.91%)

5.Indonesia Consumer Confidence slightly improved to 121.7 in Apr25 (prev: 121.1)

 

• Geopolitical Events:

1.US – China reached trade deal during the weekend to reduce duties for next 90 days marks first sign of tension of easing between two economic superpowers. They will reduce 115% tariff where Chinese goods will be tariffed 30% from previously 145% and US goods will get tariff 10% from 125%.

2.Donald Trump signed a trade deal with the UK, US tariff of 10% remains, while UK tariffs went down to 1.8% (prev: 5.1%),

3.On 7 May 2025, India launched an aggression against Pakistan on the ground of violence in Kashmir.

4.Friedrich Merz officially elected as Germany’s new chancellor.

5.The European Commission laid out a road map to remove all imports of Russian oil, gas and nuclear energy from EU markets.

6.Various global leaders including Xi Jinping is due to visit Moscow for Victory Day.

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:

1.Grab seeks deal to acquire GOTO IJ in 2Q25 with expected valuation of USD 7bn (20% premium over current market value).

2.Astra International (ASII IJ) announced dividend of  IDR 308/share (6.4% yield)

3.Aster Chemicals and Energy, JV between TPIA and Glencore, is in the process to acquire 100% Chevron Phillips Singapore Chemicals Pte Ltd (CSPC) by 2Q25. CSPC is a petrochemical manufacturing plant

4.Danantara is in talks with Eramet SA to acquire an HPAL smelter in Weda Bay. Eramet was previously involved in a canceled HPAL plant with BASF

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: declined to 18.
• Bond Market: UST yield increased to 4.4%, while IndoGb yield unchaged at 6.9%.
• DXY: inched up to 101. Rupiah hovered Rp 16,500/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:

1.Country-by-country trade deals with the US until the end of the 90 day tariff pause.

2.SRBI jumbo maturity  in May-Jun 2025

 

Summary & recommendation:

The recent trade agreement between the US and China has brought significant relief to global markets. This positive development is expected to boost global stocks, including Indonesian equities, as risk sentiment improves. We recommend investors focus on undervalued domestic stocks, as these are likely to attract renewed interest from foreign funds-especially those stocks that have been under pressure for various reasons. Additionally, Indonesia’s fiscal spending is on an upward trend, and liquidity conditions are anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, providing further support for the market

 

Product recommendation:

RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+1.3%	-3.5%
LQ45	-2.5%	-7.4%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-1.2%	-6.7%
MICB A	-0.6%	-5.5%
ASEAN5	-2.7%	-8.3%
MGSED	-6.3%	-4.7%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-0.6%	-3.9%
ETF
XMLF	+0.0%	-5.0%
BALANCED
MISB	+0.82%	+0.89%
MIA	-0.51%	-3.56%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+1.86%	+3.23%
MIDO2	+1.33%	+2.59%
IDAMAN	-0.12%	+1.28%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,10%	+1,58%
MMUSD	+0,76%	+1,08%

*The data above is as of May 9th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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