Market Performance:

• Major Indices: Trade fears pushed US indices to correction. S&P500 -0.31% WoW, Nasdaq -0.08% WoW. However, tariff impact is dampened by potential tax relaxation under OBBBA
• Domestic indices rebounded with JCI 2.65% WoW while the large cap LQ45 returned 2.96% WoW.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:

1.US June 2025 initial job claim: +227k (prev: 232k; cons: 236k)

2.Malaysia’s central bank cut rates by 25bps to 2.75%, citing weak growth amidst tariff.

3.Indonesia’s June 2025 FX reserve turns flat MoM at USD 152.6bn, equivalent to 6.4 months of imports or 6.2 months of imports + external debt payments

4.Indonesia ESDM Ministry to increase electricity subsidies to IDR 97-105tn in 2026 (2025: IDR 87.7tn)

 

• Geopolitical Events:

1.Donald Trump released new tariff rates that will be effective 1 August with the following:

• • • Indonesia: 32%, unchanged from April tariffs.
    • Canada: 35% due to a proposed Canadian tax on US digital services
    • Brazil: 50% due to BRICS and Trump’s disapproval of former president Bolsonaro’s prosecution
    • A 50% tariff for all imported copper, citing national security concern. New York copper prices spiked 14% on the news.

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:

1.Indonesia Auto sales continues to weaken in June 2025, intensified by consumers waiting for GIAAS in July for purchase decision

• • • 4W sales of 57.8k unit (-4.7% MoM) bringing 6M25 sales to 375k (-12.3% YoY), 41% of Gaikindo target.
    • 2W sales of 509k unit (+0.8% MoM) bringing 6M25 sales of 3.1m (-2.1% YoY)
    • Honda saw the largest gain MoM (+32%) from HRV Hybrid launch, followed by Suzuki (+26% MoM) from the launch of Suzuki Fronx

2.Danantara signed a MoU with Japan Bank of International Cooperation with project focus on green economy and digitalization

3.There were eight IPOs in the Jakarta Stock Exchange the past week, raising a cumulative IDR 3.3t in funds.

4.Indonesian Government is considering an export duty on gold and coal to increase government revenue

5.Ministy of Communication and Digital to introduce new regulation on SIM card ownership. This could lead in a healthier telco market

6.BUMN Agrinas successfully secured 2mn hectares of palm plantations. This accounts for ~14% of Indonesia’s plantation

7.Barito renewables launched a USD 364mn geothermal projects to power Indonesia’s green transition.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: 16.4.
• Bond Market: UST yield corrected to 4.41% (Prev: 4.27%), IndoGB yield rallied to 6.56% (Prev: 6.63%).
• DXY: 97.9 (Prev: 97.4).
• Rupiah flattish to Rp 16,210/USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • Monday, 14 July: China Trade Balance
  • Tuesday, 15 July: China GDP
  • Tuesday, 15 July: US CPI
  • Wednesday, 16 July: BI Rate decision
  • Next week is US earnings season, which would bring some volatility to US market

 

Summary & recommendation:

Tariffs fear and global risking off caused strong outflow in large caps in the JCI. Recommendation on all caps which has lower foreign flow exposure.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MITRA, RD ASEAN5, RD MIDO2, RD MIDU, RD MGSED, RD MMUSD, RD IDAMAN.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	+12,54%	-0,46%
LQ45	+11,24%	-4,91%
EQUITY
MITRA A	+12,39%	-4,14%
MICB A	+11,31%	-4,07%
ASEAN5	+11,76%	-6,31%
MGSED	+16,35%	+5,26%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	+11,05%	-1,76%
ETF
XMLF	+14,25%	-1,15%
BALANCED
MISB	+7,62%	+4,47%
MIA	+7,39%	-2,09%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+3,33%	+5,15%
MIDO2	+3,81%	+4,66%
IDAMAN A	+5,17%	+3,36%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,16%	+2,41%
MMUSD	+0,79%	+1,65%

*The data above is as of July 11th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
‌‌

The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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