Market Performance:

• Major Indices: US stocks experienced one of the most fluctuating week ever after China’s tariff retaliation to the US reciprocal tariff. In YTD performance, S&P has dropped 8.8% and Nasdaq fell 13.4% driven by the fear of recession.
• Domestic Indices: JCI has dropped below 6000 before closed at 6262. After long holiday, the domestic stocks faced steep correction, but soon recovered because the stocks have fallen quite far before the tariff announcement. Additionally, The domestic market has entered dividend season which is one of most awaited moment in this year.

 

Key drivers of the week:

• Macroeconomic Data:
  • US CPI printed 2.4% yoy (prev: 2.8% yoy, cons: 2.5%), while core inflation booked 2.8% yoy (prev: 3.1% yoy, cons: 3.0%). Markets are anticipating future inflation expectation from trump tariffs that would be reflected on April inflation data.
  • China Mar’25 inflation -0.1% yoy (prev: -0.7% yoy, cons: 0.1%). The ongoing trade dispute with the US threatens to exert further downward pressure on prices.
  • India’s central bank cut rates by 25bps to 6% and indicated further cuts to maintain growth amidst uncertainty.
  • Indonesia Mar’25 Inflation 2.48% YoY (prev: 2.48%; cons: 2.5%); normalizing after electricity stimulus in Jan-Feb.
  • Indonesia PMI Manufacturing booked 52.4 in Mar’25 (prev: 53.6). Still a strong month both output and new orders. s
  • Indonesia Mar’25 budget deficit widened to 0.43% GDP (prev: 0.13%). Tax revenue reached 17.2% of 2025 target and improved 28% MoM

 

• Geopolitical Events:
  • The US implemented a “reciprocal tariff” scheme to all its trading partner. Trump soon rolled back on the tariffs for most countries, but maintained a 145% tariff against China. China retaliated by placing an 84% tariff to US goods.
  • China unveiled a plan to boost health-related spending, targeting increased consumption of nutritious foods and expansion of the sports tourism industry.

 

• Sector/Corporate Highlights:
  • Alfamart (AMRT) Acquired Lawson chain from Alfa Midi (MIDI) to boost MIDI’s profitability. Indonesia supermarket and minimarket sector’s value grew 7.5% yoy in FY24 signalling slow down in consumer demand.
  • ANTM posted strong 2024 earnings boosted by gold trading business. This indicates a huge demand in gold from retail consumers as a safe haven during uncertain times.
  • MSCI stated that any Indonesian stock that has entered Unusual Market Activity due to price volatility is not eligible for index inclusion.

 

Market Sentiment:

• VIX: jumped above 50 before dropped to 37 last week. The global markets are uncertain of the tariff implication especially as China retaliated with high tariff as well.
• Bond Market: UST yield declined to 4.5%, while IndoGb yield lower to 7.1% with high volatility in mid week.
• DXY: currently below 100, at 99.7. However, Rupiah is still underpressured Rp16,790 per USD.

 

Looking Ahead:

• Economic data and event to watch:
  • Further response from China for US Tariffs and domestic stimulus
  • MSCI to announce its decision on Barito group after taking into account market feedback, or the latest Saturday AM JKT time.
• Corporate events:
  • BMRI (cum date: 11/4): IDR466.18 (Div yield: 9.8%)
  • BBNI (cum date: 14/4): IDR374.06 (Div yield: 9.2%).

 

Summary & recommendation:

The drama of US tariff painted the news around the world. President Trump has eventually paused the tariff by 90 days and continued imposing tariff to China. But, any possibility can happen which is making the situation uncertain for time being. However, we recommend investors to take longer horizon. We think USD assets look compelling.

 

Product recommendation:

RD MGSED, RD MICB, RD Index FTSE ESG, RD IDAMAN, dan RD MMUSD.

 

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PRODUCT	3M PERFORMANCE	YTD PERFORMANCE
JCI	-11,7%	-11,5%
LQ45	-13,9%	-14,5%
EQUITY
MITRA A	-13,0%	-14,7%
MICB A	-12,4%	-13,8%
ASEAN5	-14,5%	-16,2%
MGSED	-10,0%	-10,4%
INDEX
FTSE ESG A	-11,3%	-11,5%
ETF
XMLF	-12,9%	-13,5%
BALANCED
MISB	-2,48%	-2,92%
MIA	-7,60%	-8,83%
FIXED INCOME
MIDU A	+1,89%	+1,76%
MIDO2	+1,42%	+0,82%
IDAMAN	-1,00%	-1,72%
MONEY MARKET
MIPU A	+1,11%	+1,24%
MMUSD	+0,76%	+0,85%

*The data above is as of April 11th, 2025

 

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For More Information

Contact Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
WhatsApp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id

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DISCLAIMER‌
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The information and opinions expressed in this article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as specific advice or recommendations for any individual, security, or investment product. The content is meant to provide education about the financial industry. Opinions and views presented may change without prior notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article should not be used as a guarantee or basis for decisions to buy or sell any securities. The data reflects historical performance and does not guarantee future results. Investing in mutual funds carries risks. Investors are advised to carefully read and understand the prospectus before making any investment decisions.

 

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