2 years ago
No Pivot
If we compare the INDOGB 10-years yield in August to the past three months (Mei, June and July 2022), then we can say the yield volatility has moved relative stable with a range of just around 25bps (7,22% – 6.97%). This is a very favourable condition considering the significant rising US 10-year Treasury yield which is driven by the hawkish Fed policy. The Fed used the chance at the Jackson Hole economic symposium to deliver their hawkish message on the US central bank’s determination to tame surging inflation. The Fed chair said successfully reducing inflation would probably result in lower economic growth for “a sustained period” and to do that, interest rates would need to stay at a level that restrains growth for some time. Fed officials are debating whether a third of the same magnitude will be necessary at its meeting in September, or if they should opt for a half-point rise instead. Jerome Powell said at some point it would be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rates but dismissed recent data showing a slight easing of inflation as insufficient. Most officials say they can bring inflation under control without causing a painful recession. That runs counter to the consensus view among economists, who predict at least a mild recession sometime in the next year. Investors expect the Fed is willing to take more shortterm pain to ensure the longer-term gain of price stability and markets are unlikely to see a dovish pivot soon.
Additionally, we see the 2023 national budget draft suggests that the government returns to a disciplined budget. This sends a strong signal to the market that Indonesia’s sovereign bond rating can be maintained. Having said that there is a risk of rising central banks’ benchmark rates causing higher bond yields that create tighten the competition in offering returns to investors. Therefore, we think if the government and Bank Indonesia can maintain the overall credibility in fiscal and monetary policy, Indonesian bonds will still be favourable and attractive for a larger type of investors, especially with a better credit rating. We still suggest investors own more bond-class assets while the yields are still favourable.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MIDU | Reksa Dana MIDU berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen Jangka Menengah dan dikategorikan berisiko Rendah – Menengah. Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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