Bond Market Commentary : August 2021

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Bond Market Commentary : August 2021

Bold Signal

In August the Fed has finally sent a bold signal that tapering will come later in this year. This is being discussed in the Fed last meeting, Jackson Hole, at the end of August. The Fed sees one of their two targets has been achieved, which is the average inflation target of 2%. While the other target is employment still in progress. With the direction given by the Fed, investors are expected to be more prepared to adjust their portfolio once it happens.

In Indonesia, the government has sent the 2022 budget draft (RAPBN) to parliament. In the draft, we can see that the government is trying to push down the budget deficit to 4.85% (current 5.82%) of GDP, as mandated to achieve below 3% in 2023. The government bond issuance target in 2022 is almost the same as 2021 adjusted target despite higher expected GDP growth in 2022.

Meanwhile, we see the collaboration between the government and Bank Indonesia eliciting another cooperation Surat Keputusan Bersama (SKB) 3, which is also called burden-sharing policy. Through the cooperation, BI will purchase the government bonds in the primary market as much as Rp 215 trillion in 2021 and Rp 224 trillion in 2022. SKB 3 is initiated to support the government in vaccination, healthcare and social safety net. By having this, government bond issuance size will be lower in each auction.

With the combination of recent development such as a signal on tapering by the Fed, the usage of SAL (Saldo Anggaran Lebih) 2020 in 2021 budget, the 2022 budget draft and SKB 3, we think fixed income asset class is gaining momentum in the short term, at least until end of the year.

 

Product Recommendation

PRODUK
MINION Reksa Dana MINION Fund Berinvestasi di Obligasi USD Pemerintah Indonesia dengan
Periode Redah – Menengah dan Kategori Risiko Rendah.
Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Pasar Uang tersebut.
MIDU Reksa Dana MIDU berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen
Jangka Menengah dan dikategorikan berisiko Rendah – Menengah.
Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut.

 


 

DISCLAIMER

Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.

Written by

Willy Gunawan

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