Bond Market Commentary : December 2021

  • icon-jam05 January 2022
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Bond Market Commentary : December 2021

Domestic Dominance

 

After tapering started in November 2021, the Fed continued with another move which is expedite tapering by reducing the monthly net asset purchase pace from previously USD 15 billion to USD 30 billion which end up completely in March. At the same time, the FOMC dots show the sign of a higher chance rate hike 3 times in 2022 and 2023. That is a good signal for the global capital market where investors can expect the Fed action through the monetary policy before the economy gets overheating as reflected in the current steady economic improvement. Thus, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield is crawling up to 1.55%, including INDOGB 10-year yield at 6.38%. The spread between the two benchmark yields has widened to around 500 basis points (bps) that were previously below 450 bps. Rupiah is still relatively stable with the tailwind of the strong commodity export.

In our view, huge liquidity will still carry on to 2022 where the loan growth will increase and BI can use SKB III intensively in 2022. Hence, we still can expect domestic buyers of government bonds in 2022. Meanwhile, foreign ownership is getting lower reaching 19.8% of the total government bond. We are seeing foreign investors have plenty of choices to hunt higher EM bond nominal yields other than the Indonesian government bond nominal yield. We set a new target of benchmark INDOGB 10-years yield at range 6.25%-6.75% considering recent global and domestic development. Therefore, we lower the duration of our funds in order to lower the risk of possible policy changes.

 

Rekomendasi Produk

 

PRODUK
MIDU Reksa Dana MIDU berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen Jangka Menengah
dan dikategorikan berisiko Rendah – Menengah. Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut.

 


Info lebih lanjut

Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id

 


 

DISCLAIMER

Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.

Written by

Willy Gunawan

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