2 years ago
Defend Attractiveness
September 2022 is the special month for many central banks around the globe in raising their benchmark rates. The reason for the forceful tightening of monetary policy is, indeed, to fight inflation. Additionally, the widening gaps of the spread between the US Fed Fund Rate (FFR) and other benchmark rates create depreciation of many currencies, including the Indonesian Rupiah. This happened as the Fed raised the Fed Fund Rate by another 75 bps in September 2022 which brought the benchmark rate to a range of 3 – 3.25%. The Fed signalled that the latest hike would not be the last of its monetary policy tightening. The market has priced the FFR will rise to a range between 4-5%, the highest since the 2008 – 2009 financial crisis. Bank Indonesia has raised the 7D RRR by 50 bps and it is beyond the market’s expectation at only 25 bps. The domestic benchmark rate now increased to 4.25% and the spread between FFR and BI 7D RRR is only 100 bps.
At the same time, we see the US 10-year Treasury rate jumped significantly to 3,75% at the end of September 2022 from 3,13% at the end of August 2022, up 62 bps in one month. Meanwhile, the INDOGB 10-year yield reached 7.38% at the end of September 2022, moving up only 26 bps in one month. Hench, the spread between INDOGB and UST yield narrowed to 360 bps from previously above 400 bps. Knowing that point, we understand INDOGB can be prone to correction. However, we still like the huge domestic liquidity that can be the main supporter to buy INDOGB. The state revenue realization reached 95.6% of the full-year target as of August 2022 where indeed the government has lower supply risk and does not have to issue bonds at a higher yield. Additionally, even though the exchange rate of the Rupiah depreciated, but still one of the strongest currencies in this year’s performance. We still suggest investors add more low-duration bond funds as we think that we are halfway through the global tightening monetary change.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MIDU | Reksa Dana MIDU berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen Jangka Menengah dan dikategorikan berisiko Rendah – Menengah. Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
Written by
Leave a Reply