1 years ago
Positioning (Global Equity Market)
After a strong equity rally at the end of March 2023, global investors are waiting for a new direction from The Fed on whether the benchmark rate is necessary to rise further. Mega caps stocks were the driving factors of the US equity index, while smaller-cap stocks and other asset prices declined. That suggests a risk-off mode driven by the growth fear factor. This risk-off sentiment is in contradicts from latest PMI data that suggest a resilient recovery momentum, especially on the service side. The market is starting to position for recession (growth fear) or earnings downgrade risk where if the interest rate gets higher, it can reduce purchasing power and lead to a higher default rate & bankruptcy risk.
One of the things that we observe from big tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft is those companies delivered a surprise in their financial report in 1Q23. Rather than seeing their business fall back even further from the depressed 4Q22 level, as had been widely expected, Big Tech’s growth rates have turned back up again in 1Q23. Along with heavy cost-cutting that stemmed partly from a wave of job cuts, the revenue rebound buttressed the industry’s profit margins. The solid financial performance has buoyed confidence on Wall Street at an important moment. Investors are preparing themselves for the tech industry’s next change in financial direction: a big increase in spending to prepare for the hoped-for generative artificial intelligence boom. Additionally, despite having better fundamental results, the stock prices haven’t reflected much. That creates the opportunity for investors to add more global funds to their portfolios.
Homecoming Rally (Domestic Equity Market)
The domestic economy was conducive during the month of Hari Raya Idul Fitri. Inflation booked a lower number in April compared to the previous month due to harvesting season. PMI manufacturing was also stable in the expansion territory. The homecoming by most Indonesians went well overall during Hari Raya Idul Fitri where the government extended the holiday in order to give people more time to get together for the first time since the covid restriction was revoked. The other positive driver was the exchange rate which is stable at below Rp 15,000 per USD. Another important point in April is that more political parties announced their presidential candidacy which gives the market enough time to digest the political condition until the election in February 2024.
Indonesian stocks performed well in April 2023, especially big-cap stocks. The sectors that moved positively came from the infrastructure sector like the telecommunication, energy sector, transportation sector, basic materials sector and consumer non-cyclical sector like automotive. Financial sector which used to be the main driver of indexes was quite muted in April. In general, Indonesian stocks are still relatively cheap compared to the historical valuation. Indonesian stocks can perform further once there is more certainty on US monetary policy as global investors are currently still in the shadow of risk-off.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MICB | Reksa Dana Mandiri Investa Cerdas Bangsa berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang termasuk dalam indeks LQ45. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MANFIGA | Reksa Dana Indeks MANFIGA berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang terdapat di dalam Indeks FTSE Indonesia ESG. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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