Equity Market Commentary : November 2021

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Equity Market Commentary : November 2021

Entry Point (Global Equity Market)

 

The global market embraced the Fed’s tapering smoothly starting in early November. The Fed has reminded the market to be patient on rate hikes, especially when the virus is still evolving into other variants that threatening the global economy. However, the minutes of FOMC release show the Fed is ready to raise the rate if inflation continues running hot. We think the reappointment of Jerome Powell as the Fed governor is a positive sign, where Powell will likely maintain his view that change in monetary policy should be gradual after the economy gets more robust. We see the inflation drivers like energy cost should be normalized as oil price declined recently and coal price softened, along with stabilized logistic costs. US economic data on jobless claims and the unemployment rate keep improving, leaving only the non-farm payroll still unstable.

On the other side, although the virus variant Omicron is a new threat to humans but global societies have higher vaccination rates than before. Thus, we hope the global condition should be under-controlled. The correction at the end of November should be the chance for investors to put more equity portions in the portfolio. We don’t see the issues on rate hike and virus variant have changed our conviction on the global equity. We think a diversified portfolio like in Reksa Dana Mandiri Global Sharia Equity Dollar (RD MGSED) should be owned by investors in this current dynamic economy.

 

Healthy Correction (Domestic Equity Market)

 

Indonesia recorded GDP growth in 3Q21 3.51% yoy, lower than 2Q21 at 7.07% yoy and consensus at 4.30% yoy. The lower GDP growth was due to soft consumption which account for 53% of the total GDP that only grew 1.03% yoy compared to 2Q21 at 5.96% yoy. The deceleration of consumption growth was due to social limitation (PPKM) in 3Q21. The government projected economic growth in 4Q21 to be at 5%-6% yoy supported by an increase in household consumption. Higher consumption is driven by the stronger PMI manufacturing data and higher consumer confidence index along with improving pandemic conditions domestically. Meanwhile, Indonesia recorded Current Account Surplus again in 3Q21 at USD 4.5bn or 1.5% of GDP, higher than Current Account Surplus USD 2.0bn or 0.7% of GDP in 2Q21. This is the largest Current Account surplus since 2009 where export growth outpaced imports due to high commodity prices. Overall the Current Account of 2021 will likely record a surplus of around 0.1% – 0.5% of GDP due to the expected trade surplus until Dec21. We think any correction in the market should be used by investors to add equity into their portfolio because Indonesian stocks are in better shape and investors can get the advantage of the rally that happens statistically often in December and January.

 

Rekomendasi Produk

 

PRODUK
MGSED Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah.
Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut.
MITRA Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap.
Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut.

 


Info lebih lanjut

Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id

 


 

DISCLAIMER

Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.

Written by

Willy Gunawan

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