2 years ago
Attractive Valuation (Global Equity Market)
The US economy shows a slowdown but is not too nimble. Job openings and non–farm payroll have dropped but the unemployment rate is still in good condition. On purchasing power, the retail sales, home sales (existing and new), and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) data together with the personal income and spending data have been stabilizing and trending down. Inflation is slowing down but still at the high range. With those combinations of major data, the markets have started to expect the Fed to raise the FFR at a slower pace. By looking at the current market, investors start to buy the US market and October becomes one of the best performing months in 2022.
China was the main focus in October as President Xi Jinping was re-elected for the third term in the national congress. The result is already expected by the market. However, global investors worry about the policies that derail the economic growth for the last two years will last even longer without a different paradigm. Therefore, many investors pulled out more funds from China at the moment and seek other alternatives like India or South Korea, and even Indonesia.
We think global equity valuation is attractive and the slower growth has been embedded in analysts’ expectations. Starting to build up a global equity position is recommended for investors, especially since the global monetary tightening is halfway through and can slow down soon as the global economy driving steam is loosening. It’s not an easy job to pick a stock at an inexpensive valuation environment in a downturn economy and not all stocks can perform. Hence, having an unconstrained and diversified portfolio is critical for investors.
Conducive Environment (Domestic Equity Market)
Global inflation has put tightening monetary policies enforced in many countries. Therefore, the exchange rates of emerging countries have depreciated, including the Rupiah. Bank Indonesia responded with an aggressive rate hike in October with another 50 bps. BI tries to keep the attractiveness of Rupiah assets by keeping the rate spread between US FFR and BI 7D RRR. We see the front loading of rate hikes is necessary and healthy for the overall economy because domestic inflation increased significantly as the government lift the energy subsidy in September. We are optimistic that domestic economic growth can still go further despite the increasing benchmark rate. With more job opportunities in the current stable economy, purchasing power can certainly be maintained well. Additionally, the government has distributed the subsidy to vulnerable people that get impacted directly by the fuel adjustment. We see post fuel adjustment the domestic economy is quite conducive.
We see companies’ 3Q22 financial performance is getting stronger ranging from the financial sector and mining sector to the consumer sector. We can see the financial sector was driven by higher loan growth, the mining sector was fostered by strong demand, and the consumer sector was backed by lower input costs. These sectors are big market capitalizations that can drive the indexes going further. If there is a seasonal correction in November, this gives opportunities for investors to build up positions for statistical rallies in December 2022 and January 2023.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MICB | Reksa Dana Mandiri Investa Cerdas Bangsa berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang termasuk dalam indeks LQ45. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MANFIGA | Reksa Dana Indeks MANFIGA berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang terdapat di dalam Indeks FTSE Indonesia ESG. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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