Bond Market Commentary : February 2023

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Bond Market Commentary : February 2023

Narrow Spread

The rally in the global bond market since the beginning of 2023 turned in a different direction in February as the two economic data (employment and PCE) turned out not as expected. Previously, the global market expected that the Fed and other major central banks would soon end their aggressive campaign on tightening monetary policy. But the condition has changed after a tight US labour market report and PCE in January 2023 rose higher than the consensus forecast. The US Treasury 10-year bond yields rise from 3.53% in early Feb23 to become 3.95% at the end of the month. The recent global market narrative has shifted to no monetary policy pivot in 2023 and the Fed rate can rise two times more to 5.00% – 5.25% at its peak.

Looking into the domestic market, the IndoGB 10-year bond yield relatively held up well from 6.71% at the beginning of February 2023 to 6,89% at the end of the month. Hence, the spread between the US Treasury 10year yield and the IndoGB 10-year yield narrowed to 280 – 300 bps. The domestic bond yields are supported by onshore banks, foreign investors, insurance and pension funds. the Rupiah exchange rate is quite stable during the month and become the reason Bank Indonesia maintains its benchmark rate in February 2023 after raising 225 bps to 5,75%. We see Bank Indonesia has many instruments to maintain exchange rate stability in the current situation. We recommend investors add bond funds, especially when the monetary policy is near the peak.

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PRODUK
MIDU Reksa Dana MIDU berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen Jangka Menengah dan dikategorikan berisiko rendah – menengah.
Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut.
IDAMAN Reksa Dana IDAMAN berinvestasi pada Obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia USD dengan durasi pendek dan dikategorikan berisiko menengah.
Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut.
MIDO2 Reksa Dana MIDO2 berinvestasi pada Obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia Rupiah dengan durasi panjang dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi.
Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut.

 


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DISCLAIMER

Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.

Written by

Willy Gunawan

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