2 years ago
Another comeback
The month of June 2022 is a challenging month for the fixed income asset class, at the same time giving a chance for investors to re-enter the bond market. The spike of INDOGB yield to 7.4% (from 7.0%) in early May22 has been tamed by the expectation of declining US inflation, hence INDOGB yield returned to 7.0% by end of May22. Unfortunately, the reality speaks different where inflation data (8.6% on May22) exceed the market expectation (8.3%). The US central bank has no option but to react to a 75 bps hike in their following week’s meeting and is expected to do the same in the scheduled meeting on July 2022. Bond markets experienced another round of deep correction in order to calibrate the surprise data and tighter policy stance. US Treasury yield has shot up to 3.5% before declining to 3.1%. Meanwhile, INDOGB yield reached 7.5% in mid of Jun22 but strengthened back to 7.2% at month-end. We observed the yield spread between the US Treasury bond and INDOGB can hold up quite well at 400 – 420 bps. This becomes the reason why we are quite optimistic about the INDOGB where we have seen the resiliency of INDOGB yield in the surprise event.
The stable economic condition is currently supported by the combination of ion fiscal and monetary policy. We think the government has an interest to maintain the economic recovery by maintaining the growing purchasing power. Hence, the plan to subsidy the energy cost should be well perceived although the implementation can be quite challenging. We are still in the opinion that government has the capacity to make the energy subsidy happen because the state income achievement looks convincing (58% of the full-year target in the first 5 months of 2022), while the state expenditure is still moderate (35% of full-year target in 5 months). That can give room for the government to act on fighting high energy costs. Hence, inflation should be manageable and good for the bond market. We also see Bank Indonesia still maintaining the benchmark rate at 3.5%. However, the recent depreciation of the Rupiah is important to watch and we expect BI will do more in order to maintain the attractiveness of investment in Indonesia.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MIDU | Reksa Dana MIDU berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen Jangka Menengah dan dikategorikan berisiko Rendah – Menengah. Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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