1 years ago
High Volatility (Global Equity Market)
Global indexes moved in a positive direction in March 2023. Compared to the previous month when the market expected the Fed to raise further the benchmark rate in vanquish strong inflation, this March investors see the economy might not be able to face further rate hikes as some banks in the US were declared a default in mid of March 2023. The US regulator and the central bank acted fast in order to avoid systematic risk to the financial system. That event created a risk-off event, hence US Treasury yields declined significantly and DXY strengthened in the short run. The Fed had pumped in the liquidity in the US banking system in order to calm the market, however, this is not the same as quantitative easing hence the measure taken by the central bank will unlikely escalate the current high inflation. We are of the opinion that the current US economic structure is different than in the 70s and 80s when the majority of people were not indebted. In recent times, most people and companies are indebted and it is precarious if the benchmark rate keeps rising. Meanwhile, the US inflation and unemployment rate moved in a demanded direction although still a long way to go until reaching the targeted level. Looking at the current condition, it is not an easy time for the Fed to deal with all the challenges. The Fed rate has reached 5,00% and we think the benchmark rate peak is around 5.25%. We also think that in order to bring inflation down, the Fed will hold the benchmark rate at its peak until the end of the year. We think investors can do something from the current condition because even though it’s now quite volatile, the overall condition is under control. We recommend investors invest in a global portfolio gradually due to limited downside risk and reaching its peak interest rate.
Comeback (Domestic Equity Market)
The Indonesian stocks made a comeback in mid of March 2023 as the global market see a sign of peaking US interest rates. That is completely different from the beginning of the month as the global market still expects further US rate hikes due to strong inflation. However, suddenly the investors expect The Fed to pause the rate hike because one of the US banks declared a default. US authorities like Treasury Minister and Central Bank moved fast in order to avoid what is afraid of namely systemic risk. The Fed is in a hard time because any policies might bring risky consequences. Fortunately, recent US inflation and unemployment progress in demanded direction hence investors see the pressure to raise The Fed rate further has eased. Therefore, the dollar index (DXY) declined and investors see opportunity might be in emerging markets as a source of growth.
Indonesian stocks are turning positive and foreign investors flew back due to attractive valuation and growth prospects. We think the rally still has legs and domestic indexes can reach higher especially if the first quarter results are released in April 2023. We still like the financial sectors, telecommunication, non-cyclical and automotive sectors. We also see the mining sectors can be attractive in the dividend season in the second quarter of this year. The technology sector looks appealing but we wait for a better moment to proceed further.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MICB | Reksa Dana Mandiri Investa Cerdas Bangsa berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang termasuk dalam indeks LQ45. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MANFIGA | Reksa Dana Indeks MANFIGA berinvestasi mayoritas pada saham yang terdapat di dalam Indeks FTSE Indonesia ESG. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info Lebih Lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Whatsapp Mandiri Investasi – 0816 86 0003
Email Mandiri Investasi – [email protected]
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
Written by
Leave a Reply