1 years ago
Upper Bound Shaped
After a deep correction in October 2023, November 2023 became the brightest month for most asset classes because major central banks halted the interest rate hike and the global economic condition is moving into the anticipated situation in general. Inflation rate is easing fast. After 18 months of painful price growth, data over the autumn months across the US and Europe has been better than expected. The main driving force behind falling inflation this year has been an easing in external price pressures. Central bankers have repeatedly said the last mile, which involves taming growth in domestic goods and service prices, will be harder. However, core price inflation has recently turned a corner. Signs are increasing of a dimming in economic activity in the US, Europe and the UK. That would build the case to begin cutting rates sooner than anticipated. It is too early to declare mission accomplished. Policymakers need to watch core inflation closely for signs of stickiness and ascertain how medium-term dynamics such as demographic change, the AI revolution and geopolitical shifts may also influence prices.
Bank Indonesia also halted the benchmark rate at 6.00% in November 2023. The exchange rate of the Rupiah has normalized back to below Rp 15,500 per USD after nearing Rp 16,000 per USD in the previous month. This is supported by BI’s anticipation actions through many tools in recent months. We think this caused the money supply M2 to grow only at 3% whereas it is normally at 5-6%. We think big uncertainty is slowly diminishing and investors should be more confident in collecting more fixed-income assets as the ceiling of bond yield is shaped by recent correction.
Product Recommendation
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MIDU | MIDU invests in Bond Instruments with a Medium-Term segment and is categorized as low to medium risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the Bond Portfolio. |
| IDAMAN | IDAMAN invests in Indonesian Government USD Bonds with a short duration and is categorized as medium risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the Bond Portfolio. |
| MIDO2 |
MIDO2 invests in Indonesian Government Rupiah Bonds with a long duration and is categorized as high risk. Investors bear the risk associated with the Bond Portfolio. |
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The opinions expressed in the article are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for individuals or specific mutual fund or investment products. It is intended solely to provide education about the financial industry. Views reflected in the content may change at any time without notice. All performance data and investment returns mentioned in this article cannot be used as a basis for calculation to buy or sell a mutual fund. This data is performance records based on historical data and is not a guarantee of future mutual fund performance. Investment through mutual funds carries risks. Investors are required to read and understand the prospectus before deciding to invest through mutual funds.
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