3 years ago
Adjustment Time
The Fed maintained the benchmark rate within the range 0% – 0.25% in the last FOMC. At the same time, the Fed signals the likelihood of reducing bond-buying stimulus starting end of this year and forecasts bond-buying will come to end in 2022. Regarding the rate hike, the Fed’s DOT plot indicates there will be three times rate hikes by the end of 2023 and the rate rise will likely be sooner. With that hawkish view by the Fed, US 10 years Treasury yield has inched up. Meanwhile, US Congress is still discussing passing the infrastructure bill and USD 3.5 trillion budget package. The bill will provide the market with more US Treasury, hence we predict more bond supply will drive yield going higher.
From domestic, we see fiscal revenue continued to improve reaching 14% YoY in 8M21 (vs. FY21 target at 7% growth) from 9% YoY in 1H21 supported by domestic and external economies. On the other hand, the fiscal expenditure slowed to 1.5% YoY in 8M21 from 9.4% YoY in 1H21, due to decline in regional transfer. Additionally, PEN fund (dana Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional) only reached 53% as of 17 Sep21 out of Rp 744.75 trillion. Ministry of Finance forecasts that the 3Q21 GDP growth still can reach between 4% – 5% despite PPKM in almost all cities in Indonesia. By end of September, Indonesia has made further progress in pandemic indicators such as vaccination rate first shot reached 42% (second shot 23%), BOR lowered to 9%, and daily positive patient booked only roughly 2000 cases/day.
Although US Treasury yield will rise, at the back of plenty domestic catalysts such as strong fiscal revenue, improving Covid-19 condition, stronger macro-economic data and stable exchange rate, we are confident yield spread between INDOGB and US 10 years Treasury can narrow further. Hence, fixed income class can continue to perform.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MIDU | Reksa Dana MIDU berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen Jangka Menengah dan dikategorikan berisiko Rendah – Menengah. Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut. |
| MIDO2 | Reksa Dana MIDO 2 berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen Jangka Menengah dan dikategorikan berisiko Rendah – Menengah. Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut |
| MINION | Reksa Dana MINION Fund Berinvestasi di Obligasi USD Pemerintah Indonesia dengan Periode Rendah – Menengah dan Kategori Risiko Rendah. Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Pasar Uang tersebut |
Info lebih lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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