2 years ago
Flavours for Foreign Investors
The inflation still took the main attention of global investors in February 2022. The source of inflation was on the demand side rather than the supply side. This was because wage growth and personal consumption expenditure kept increasing. The question is whether the Fed raise the rate up to 50 bps or a modest 25 bps in March 2022 in order to tame inflation. We see the markets have raised the number of rate hikes between 6 – 7 times. This resulted in a higher US 2 – years Treasury yield reaching 1.6%, while 10 – years yield has touched 2.1% before sliding back to 1.9%. Additionally, the war in Europe has shaken the global market where investors tried to hide in safe-haven assets like US Treasury. The US Treasury yield curve has become flattened due to the higher short and medium-term rate expectation. INDOGB also inched up but in a moderate shift than US Treasury. Domestic investors especially banks are still the biggest buyers of INDOGB. We see the pattern where banks can become the largest INDOGB buyer will be the same this year despite higher loan growth and a new policy on higher reserve requirement ratio. This is because the deposit has been growing at a higher rate than the loan.
Besides, the foreign investors started to purchase INDOGB again after heavy outflow in the last quarter of 2021. Although INDOGGB provides a higher real yield, some other countries offer a better nominal yield. Therefore, we think global investors are still interested to own selective emerging countries’ bonds. Currently, Indonesia possesses a stable currency due to the current account surplus and low reliability on foreign ownership. Indonesia booked a fiscal surplus in January which was quite rare happened. That is a sign that state revenue is a positive trend because of the improving domestic economic environment and strong export. If the positive revenue trend can hold for quite some time, the bond issuance can be lower than budgeted and the INDOGB 10-year yield can move within 6.25% – 6.75%. We are still upbeat on the fixed income asset class and recommend investors to own low duration funds to anticipate the uncertainty of global monetary change.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MIDU | Reksa Dana MIDU berinvestasi pada Instrumen Obligasi dengan segmen Jangka Menengah dan dikategorikan berisiko Rendah – Menengah. Investor memiliki risiko atas Portofolio Obligasi tersebut. |
Info lebih lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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