2 years ago
Macroeconomic complication (Global Equity Market)
The global equity markets went through multiple challenges in February where inflation still became the main topic. The inflation of major countries rose significantly, but this time is more from the demand-side rather than the supply-side. The strong demand-side was driven by high wage growth and strong Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE). Inflation is also affected by higher energy and commodity price. These prices were exacerbated by the war in Europe that drove the oil price above USD 100 per barrel. The situation is not easy for the Fed to make decisions in March although the market has priced in the 6 – 7 times rate hikes this year. One thing is for sure, the Fed will try to take a policy that assists the US economy to expand as far as it can be.
Currently, as the commodity prices rise, global investors are streaming the investment to rich commodity countries like Indonesia. However, in the long run, as markets are clearer on the Fed direction and the war is subdued, investors will search for growth again. We are thinking the volatility will be still high as many factors are still uncertain. Current corrections in developed markets are supposed to be a decent entry point for investors to build new positions in global equity markets. The global market valuations, especially technology stocks, have shrunk to a normal valuation range. With stronger purchasing power, companies’ fundamental performance can improve and growth stock prices can perform at the same time. RD MGSED performance is influenced more by the macroeconomic economy rather than the fundamental reason. In the long run, we think the fund performance will make a comeback.
The Rally Has Legs (Domestic Equity Market)
After a wavy ride in January, Indonesian stocks have performed excellently in February 2022. This is because Indonesia can prove to be a better place in the current global condition. Energy prices, especially oil prices, have been quite elevated for some time. Although still a net oil importer, Indonesia benefits by becoming the main exporter of CPO and coal where currently soaring in price. Global investors seemed to forget Indonesia for the past two years due to the pandemic. Now with the normalized economy in developed markets, global investors search for countries that can deliver growth with decent valuation. Indonesia is among of few countries that can overcome pandemics quite well considering the huge population and many islands. Indonesia’s government has been quite successful to balance public health and safety with economic growth. The vaccination rate is one of the highest among other populous countries. Domestic inflation was still in the low range of BI’s inflation expectation therefore real returns still deliver a positive return for investors. The stable exchange rate can last for quite some time because the demand for commodities is still high and investment inflow is still improving. That is why global investors are more confident toward Indonesia shown in the recent increase in the stock market, especially in February 2022. JCI records high steadily and we think the rally has the leg. While the global market is still uncertain about the Fed policy change and the war in Europe, investors keep investing in recovery economies like Indonesia. Therefore, we still recommend investors take more equity portions despite many global challenges.
Rekomendasi Produk
| PRODUK | |
|---|---|
| MGSED | Reksa Dana MGSED berinvestasi pada Efek Ekuitas Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
| MITRA | Reksa Dana MITRA berinvestasi pada saham domestik mayoritas saham Big Cap. Dengan segmen Jangka Panjang, dan dikategorikan berisiko tinggi. Investor memiliki risiko atas portofolio saham tersebut. |
Info lebih lanjut
Hubungi Mandiri Investasi – (021) 526 3505
Mandiri Investasi – www.mandiri-investasi.co.id
Moinves – www.moinves.co.id
DISCLAIMER
Pendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.
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